{"id":2507,"date":"2025-09-19T19:53:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T11:53:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/?p=2507"},"modified":"2025-09-19T20:06:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T12:06:08","slug":"chain-explorationwhy-did-the-market-react-calmly-to-the-feds-expected-25-basis-point-interest-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/chain-explorationwhy-did-the-market-react-calmly-to-the-feds-expected-25-basis-point-interest-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Chain Exploration”Why Did the Market React Calmly to the Fed’s Expected 25-Basis-Point Interest Rate Cut?”"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Fed Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points as Expected: Why the Market Shrugged? Dot Plot Reveals Internal Divisions<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

“Good afternoon” \u2013 when Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened his remarks at 2:30 PM on September 18, markets braced for a dovish signal. The Fed had just announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, its first since December 2024. Yet, despite the anticipated dovish tone (note: markets historically link “Good afternoon” to hawkishness and “Hello everyone” to dovishness), the market rally never materialized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Reactions: Gold Hits Record, Stocks & Crypto Mixed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Post-announcement, spot gold surged to a record high of $3,704\/ounce. But equities were mixed: Dow Jones rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq fell 0.33% and S&P 500 dipped 0.10%. Crypto saw modest gains: BTC +1.07% (24h), ETH +2.66%, SOL +5.5%, DOGE +6.2% \u2013 hardly the fireworks some expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the Muted Response?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Two key reasons explain the flat market:
\n1. “Buy the rumor, sell the fact”<\/strong>: Powell\u2019s Jackson Hole speech in August already signaled a potential cut, so markets had “priced in” the move.
\n2. Focus on future cuts<\/strong>: A 25-basis-point cut wasn\u2019t enough \u2013 the real question: *”Is this the first of many? How many more cuts in 2025?”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dot Plot: 19 Officials, Divided on Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Fed\u2019s Dot Plot \u2013 tracking officials\u2019 rate projections \u2013 laid bare internal rifts. Of 19 officials:
\n– 1 opposed any 2025 cuts
\n– 6 backed 25 basis points (1 cut)
\n– 2 favored 50 basis points (2 cuts)
\n– 9 pushed for 75 basis points (3 cuts)
\n– 1 (likely Milan) advocated a drastic 150 basis points (at least two big cuts: 75bp + 50bp).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While “cutting rates” is now consensus (vs. June, when 7 opposed cuts), the debate is over how much<\/em>. The median forecast suggests 50 more basis points in 2025 \u2013 typically bullish for stocks and crypto. But Powell cautioned: “Support for 50 basis points isn\u2019t strong among FOMC members.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Participants: Mixed Readings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Experts parsed Powell\u2019s words differently:
\n– George Goncalves<\/strong> (Mitsubishi UFJ Macro Strategy Head): “The Fed restarted rate cuts but isn\u2019t in \u2018sprint mode.\u2019 This was their most dovish move possible, and the Dot Plot added another cut this year. But it feels like restarting, not sprinting \u2013 they admit the job market isn\u2019t as strong as hoped.”
\n– Michael Rosen<\/strong> (Angeles Investments CIO): “Powell cooled expectations for aggressive easing. He acknowledged labor weakness but stressed \u2018larger cuts would only come if conditions worsen significantly.\u2019”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed called tariff-driven inflation “temporary,” but Powell left a caveat: if inflation proves persistent, the Fed must prevent “one-off price hikes” from becoming “sustained inflation” \u2013 keeping markets guessing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crypto Market: Optimism Abounds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Crypto participants struck a more upbeat tone. BitMine Chair Tom Lee told CNBC: “Post-rate cut, Bitcoin and Ethereum could surge in the next 3 months.”
\nOn-chain data supports this: After the decision, whale 0xd8d0…c39d bought 25,000 ETH for $112.34M USDC at $4,493\/ETH. Another ETH whale (with $74.92M in swing trade profits) purchased 18,000 ETH for $80.77M USDC (avg. $4,487), now holding ~$114M in ETH and USDC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read More\u300a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5982\u671f\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f55\u53cd\u5e94\u5e73\u6de1?\u300b<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This content is AI-generated and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise your own rational judgment.<\/p>\n\n\n