{"id":1447,"date":"2025-07-13T11:36:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-13T03:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/?p=1447"},"modified":"2025-07-13T12:35:06","modified_gmt":"2025-07-13T04:35:06","slug":"chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/","title":{"rendered":"Chain Exploration&#8221;Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"832\" height=\"246\" src=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1461\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png 832w, https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47-300x89.png 300w, https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47-768x227.png 768w, https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47-670x198.png 670w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 832px) 100vw, 832px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-audio\"><audio controls src=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Chain-ExplorationReflection-after-the-sharp-rise_-Which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in_.mp3\"><\/audio><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Post-Surge Reflection: Which Phase of the Macro Cycle Are We In?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As BTC hits a new all-time high and ETH surges past $3,000, a question looms amid the crypto market\u72c2\u6b22: Is this rally driven by sentiment, or is it an inevitable result of the macro liquidity cycle? Recent dovish signals from Fed officials\u2014San Francisco Fed President Daly hinting at &#8220;two rate cuts by autumn&#8221; and potential next Fed Chair Waller\u76f4\u8a00 &#8220;July should see rate cut discussions&#8221;\u2014have thrust &#8220;liquidity&#8221; from an abstract term into a key determinant of your portfolio&#8217;s fate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why You Must Understand the Liquidity Cycle<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Think of the global economy as a car engine; central bank liquidity is its lubricant. Too much (easy money) overheats the engine (asset bubbles); too little (tightening) seizes the pistons (recession). Notably, <strong>generational wealth is often created during the &#8220;tight-to-loose&#8221; transition<\/strong>\u2014the 2021 crypto bull run, for example, was essentially a product of 2020&#8217;s global money printing spree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2021-2025: The Liquidity Cycle Rollercoaster<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past five years, we&#8217;ve experienced four phases:<br>\n&#8211; <strong>Great Dovishness (2020-2021)<\/strong> : Zero interest rates + unprecedented QE + $16T fiscal stimulus. Global &#8220;money printers&#8221; ran at full speed, pushing M2 growth to post-WWII highs.<br>\n&#8211; <strong>Great Tightening (2021-2022)<\/strong> : 500 basis points of aggressive rate hikes + QT balance sheet reduction. Bond markets crashed 17%, and crypto followed with a 50% drop.<br>\n&#8211; <em>* Plateau Phase (2022-2024)<\/em>* : No more tightening\u52a0\u7801, but high rates and QT persisted as central banks &#8220;waited and watched&#8221; to suppress inflation.<br>\n&#8211; <strong>Initial Pivot (2024-2025)<\/strong> : Global rate cut cycle begins. Rates remain high but start falling, with policy tilting subtly toward dovishness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mid-2025: Where Do We Stand?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Current conditions resemble &#8220;one foot in Plateau, one testing the Pivot&#8221;: Rates stay elevated, QT continues, but Fed rhetoric betrays a dovish bias. For a quick comparison, check this &#8220;Liquidity Traffic Light&#8221; (\ud83d\udd34Inactive\/\ud83d\udfe0Mild\/\ud83d\udfe2Intense):<br>\n&#8211; <strong>Rate Cuts<\/strong> : 2017\ud83d\udd34(hiking), 2021\ud83d\udfe2(zero rates), 2025\ud83d\udfe0(mild cuts likely end-2025).<br>\n&#8211; <strong>QE\/QT<\/strong> : 2017\ud83d\udd34(Fed shrinking), 2021\ud83d\udfe2(global QE), 2025\ud83d\udd34(Fed QT, but Japan\/China easing locally).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Four Signals to Watch for &#8220;True Dovishness&#8221;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Ignore short-term hype\u2014these four signals matter most:<br>\n1. <strong>Inflation Target Met + Policy Shift<\/strong> : Fed drops &#8220;inflation-fighting&#8221; tough talk for &#8220;neutral&#8221; language\u2014a &#8220;verbal\u677e\u571f&#8221; before rate cuts.<br>\n2. <strong>QT Paused<\/strong> : Central banks announce 100% reinvestment of maturing bonds, stopping liquidity drain and turning neutral.<br>\n3. <strong>USD Funding Stress<\/strong> : FRA-OIS spread above 25 bps or repo rate spikes, signaling market &#8220;cash shortages&#8221; forcing central bank intervention.<br>\n4. <strong>China RRR Cut<\/strong> : Reserve requirement ratio below 6.35%, releasing \u00a5400B base money\u2014often the first domino in EM easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line: Carnival<strong> <\/strong>or Building Momentum?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In short, we\u2019re not in &#8220;full flood&#8221; mode yet. Market risk appetite will swing, but true mania arrives only when multiple green lights flash (e.g., rate cuts + QT pause). Remember: <strong>Understanding the liquidity cycle is your key to decoding wealth transfers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.odaily.news\/post\/5204991\">Read More\u300a\u66b4\u6da8\u540e\u7684\u6c89\u601d:\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u671f\u7684\u54ea\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5?\u300b<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This content is AI-generated and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise your own rational judgment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/dzdt.online\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/%e9%93%be%e4%b8%8a%e6%8e%a2%e7%b4%a2%e3%80%8a%e6%9a%b4%e6%b6%a8%e5%90%8e%e7%9a%84%e6%b2%89%e6%80%9d%e6%88%91%e4%bb%ac%e6%ad%a3%e5%a4%84%e4%ba%8e%e5%ae%8f%e8%a7%82%e5%91%a8%e6%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e5%93%aa\/\">\u94fe\u4e0a\u63a2\u7d22\u300a\u66b4\u6da8\u540e\u7684\u6c89\u601d:\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u671f\u7684\u54ea\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5?\u300b<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list wp-block-latest-posts\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/08\/%e5%88%9b%e4%b8%9a%e7%83%ad%e7%82%b9%e6%99%a8%e6%8a%a5-2026%e5%b9%b404%e6%9c%8808%e6%97%a5%ef%bc%88%e5%91%a8%e4%b8%89%ef%bc%89%ef%bc%9a2026%e5%b9%b4%e5%a4%a7%e5%ad%a6%e7%94%9f%e5%88%9b%e6%96%b0\/\">\u521b\u4e1a\u70ed\u70b9\u6668\u62a5 | 2026\u5e7404\u670808\u65e5\uff08\u5468\u4e09\uff09\uff1a2026\u5e74\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u521b\u65b0\u521b\u4e1a\u8bad\u7ec3\u8ba1\u5212\u9879\u76ee\u63a8\u8350\u6392\u5e8f\u516c\u793a\u30012026\u5e74\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u521b\u65b0\u521b\u4e1a\u8bad\u7ec3\u8ba1\u5212\u9879\u76ee\u63a8\u8350\u6392\u5e8f\u516c\u793a<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/07\/%e5%88%9b%e4%b8%9a%e7%83%ad%e7%82%b9%e6%99%a8%e6%8a%a5-2026%e5%b9%b404%e6%9c%8807%e6%97%a5%ef%bc%88%e5%91%a8%e4%ba%8c%ef%bc%89%ef%bc%9a%e6%9c%80%e9%ab%98%e6%89%b6%e6%8c%8150%e4%b8%87%e5%85%832026\/\">\u521b\u4e1a\u70ed\u70b9\u6668\u62a5 | 2026\u5e7404\u670807\u65e5\uff08\u5468\u4e8c\uff09\uff1a\u6700\u9ad8\u6276\u630150\u4e07\u5143!2026\u5e74\u6e56\u5317\u7701\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u521b\u4e1a\u6276\u6301\u9879&#8230;\u3001\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u94f6\u6765\u5566!2026\u5e74\u6e56\u5317\u7701\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u521b\u4e1a\u6276\u6301\u9879\u76ee\u4eca&#8230;<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/06\/%e5%88%9b%e4%b8%9a%e7%83%ad%e7%82%b9%e6%99%a8%e6%8a%a5-2026%e5%b9%b404%e6%9c%8806%e6%97%a5%ef%bc%88%e5%91%a8%e4%b8%80%ef%bc%89%ef%bc%9a%e7%9c%9f%e9%87%91%e7%99%bd%e9%93%b6%e6%9d%a5%e5%95%a62026\/\">\u521b\u4e1a\u70ed\u70b9\u6668\u62a5 | 2026\u5e7404\u670806\u65e5\uff08\u5468\u4e00\uff09\uff1a\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u94f6\u6765\u5566!2026\u5e74\u6e56\u5317\u7701\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u521b\u4e1a\u6276\u6301\u9879\u76ee\u4eca&#8230;\u3001\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u94f6\u6765\u5566!2026\u5e74\u6e56\u5317\u7701\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u521b\u4e1a\u6276\u6301\u9879\u76ee\u660e&#8230;<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/05\/%e5%88%9b%e4%b8%9a%e7%83%ad%e7%82%b9%e6%99%a8%e6%8a%a5-2026%e5%b9%b404%e6%9c%8805%e6%97%a5%ef%bc%88%e5%91%a8%e6%97%a5%ef%bc%89%ef%bc%9a%e6%af%9b%e5%ad%a9%e5%ad%90%e4%b9%9f%e6%9c%89%e6%90%ad%e5%ad%90\/\">\u521b\u4e1a\u70ed\u70b9\u6668\u62a5 | 2026\u5e7404\u670805\u65e5\uff08\u5468\u65e5\uff09\uff1a\u6bdb\u5b69\u5b50\u4e5f\u6709\u642d\u5b50\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u5ddd\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u7814\u53d1\u4f34\u5ba0\u673a\u5668\u4eba,\u62ff\u4e0b\u5168&#8230;\u3001\u6700\u9ad8\u6276\u630150\u4e07\u5143!2026\u5e74\u6e56\u5317\u7701\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u521b\u4e1a\u6276\u6301\u9879&#8230;<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/09\/startup-commentarythree-post-2005-entrepreneurs-are-reported-to-have-secured-a-new-financing-of-350-million-yuan\/\">Startup Commentary&#8221;Three post-2005 entrepreneurs are reported to have secured a new financing of 350 million yuan.&#8221;<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In short, we\u2019re not in &#8220;full flood&#8221; mode yet. Market risk appetite will swing, but true mania arrives only when multiple green lights flash (e.g., rate cuts + QT pause). Remember: Understanding the liquidity cycle is your key to decoding wealth transfers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[9],"class_list":["post-1447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-xiaotongcolumn","tag-chainexploration"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Chain Exploration&quot;Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?&quot; - AIWiseLnk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In short, we\u2019re not in &quot;full flood&quot; mode yet. Market risk appetite will swing, but true mania arrives only when multiple green lights flash (e.g., rate cuts + QT pause). Remember: Understanding the liquidity cycle is your key to decoding wealth transfers.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chain Exploration&quot;Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?&quot; - AIWiseLnk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In short, we\u2019re not in &quot;full flood&quot; mode yet. Market risk appetite will swing, but true mania arrives only when multiple green lights flash (e.g., rate cuts + QT pause). Remember: Understanding the liquidity cycle is your key to decoding wealth transfers.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AIWiseLnk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-13T03:36:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-13T04:35:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"832\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"246\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"XiaoTong\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Ace3000L71541\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Ace3000L71541\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"XiaoTong\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"XiaoTong\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#\/schema\/person\/a7ccb451df953ca0a1a9fd6113c8e469\"},\"headline\":\"Chain Exploration&#8221;Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?&#8221;\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-07-13T03:36:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-07-13T04:35:06+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/\"},\"wordCount\":492,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Chain Exploration\"],\"articleSection\":[\"XiaoTong Column\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/\",\"name\":\"Chain Exploration\\\"Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?\\\" - AIWiseLnk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-07-13T03:36:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-07-13T04:35:06+00:00\",\"description\":\"In short, we\u2019re not in \\\"full flood\\\" mode yet. Market risk appetite will swing, but true mania arrives only when multiple green lights flash (e.g., rate cuts + QT pause). Remember: Understanding the liquidity cycle is your key to decoding wealth transfers.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png\",\"width\":832,\"height\":246,\"caption\":\"the \\\"shift towards low - prices\\\" in the liquor industry is an inevitable result of rational consumption\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Chain Exploration&#8221;Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?&#8221;\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/\",\"name\":\"AIWiseLnk\",\"description\":\"AI-Driven Resources for Global Entrepreneurs in China\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"AIWiseLnk\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/cropped-cropped-Aiwiselnk-logo-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/cropped-cropped-Aiwiselnk-logo-1.png\",\"width\":273,\"height\":64,\"caption\":\"AIWiseLnk\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/x.com\/Ace3000L71541\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#\/schema\/person\/a7ccb451df953ca0a1a9fd6113c8e469\",\"name\":\"XiaoTong\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/cropped-\u6653\u901a\u5934\u50cf_\u5c0f-96x96.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/cropped-\u6653\u901a\u5934\u50cf_\u5c0f-96x96.jpg\",\"caption\":\"XiaoTong\"},\"description\":\"A cheerful and outgoing guy who loves making friends, currently serving as an assistant at aiwiselnk.com. Skilled in the fundamentals of entrepreneurship, classic business models, and general knowledge. My motto: \u201cEvery attempt is a valuable learning opportunity.\u201dI\u2019m passionate about helping global entrepreneurs succeed in innovation and business ventures in China.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/author\/xiaotong\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Chain Exploration\"Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?\" - AIWiseLnk","description":"In short, we\u2019re not in \"full flood\" mode yet. Market risk appetite will swing, but true mania arrives only when multiple green lights flash (e.g., rate cuts + QT pause). Remember: Understanding the liquidity cycle is your key to decoding wealth transfers.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Chain Exploration\"Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?\" - AIWiseLnk","og_description":"In short, we\u2019re not in \"full flood\" mode yet. Market risk appetite will swing, but true mania arrives only when multiple green lights flash (e.g., rate cuts + QT pause). Remember: Understanding the liquidity cycle is your key to decoding wealth transfers.","og_url":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/","og_site_name":"AIWiseLnk","article_published_time":"2025-07-13T03:36:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-07-13T04:35:06+00:00","og_image":[{"width":832,"height":246,"url":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"XiaoTong","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@Ace3000L71541","twitter_site":"@Ace3000L71541","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"XiaoTong","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/"},"author":{"name":"XiaoTong","@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#\/schema\/person\/a7ccb451df953ca0a1a9fd6113c8e469"},"headline":"Chain Exploration&#8221;Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?&#8221;","datePublished":"2025-07-13T03:36:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-07-13T04:35:06+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/"},"wordCount":492,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png","keywords":["Chain Exploration"],"articleSection":["XiaoTong Column"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/","url":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/","name":"Chain Exploration\"Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?\" - AIWiseLnk","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png","datePublished":"2025-07-13T03:36:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-07-13T04:35:06+00:00","description":"In short, we\u2019re not in \"full flood\" mode yet. Market risk appetite will swing, but true mania arrives only when multiple green lights flash (e.g., rate cuts + QT pause). Remember: Understanding the liquidity cycle is your key to decoding wealth transfers.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/b2eb9c1f2586327cb7761b8b45c94003_image-47.png","width":832,"height":246,"caption":"the \"shift towards low - prices\" in the liquor industry is an inevitable result of rational consumption"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/13\/chain-explorationreflection-after-the-sharp-rise-which-stage-of-the-macro-cycle-are-we-in\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Chain Exploration&#8221;Reflection after the sharp rise: Which stage of the macro cycle are we in?&#8221;"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/","name":"AIWiseLnk","description":"AI-Driven Resources for Global Entrepreneurs in China","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#organization","name":"AIWiseLnk","url":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/cropped-cropped-Aiwiselnk-logo-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/cropped-cropped-Aiwiselnk-logo-1.png","width":273,"height":64,"caption":"AIWiseLnk"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/Ace3000L71541"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#\/schema\/person\/a7ccb451df953ca0a1a9fd6113c8e469","name":"XiaoTong","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/cropped-\u6653\u901a\u5934\u50cf_\u5c0f-96x96.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/cropped-\u6653\u901a\u5934\u50cf_\u5c0f-96x96.jpg","caption":"XiaoTong"},"description":"A cheerful and outgoing guy who loves making friends, currently serving as an assistant at aiwiselnk.com. Skilled in the fundamentals of entrepreneurship, classic business models, and general knowledge. My motto: \u201cEvery attempt is a valuable learning opportunity.\u201dI\u2019m passionate about helping global entrepreneurs succeed in innovation and business ventures in China.","url":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/author\/xiaotong\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1447"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1464,"href":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447\/revisions\/1464"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aiwiselnk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}