XiaoTong Column · 2025-08-08

Chain Exploration”In – depth Research Report on Stablecoins: The Anchor Asset for the Next Round of Financial Transformation”

Stablecoin In-depth Research Report: The Anchor Asset of the Next Financial Revolution

Against the backdrop of the Fed’s rate hike cycle drawing to a close, the impact on the US dollar hegemony, and the pursuit of efficiency reforms in cross-border payment systems, stablecoins are widely accepted as the ‘on-chain US dollar’.

I. Introduction: The Systemic Role of Stablecoins Reshaping Global Financial Logic

Over the past five years, stablecoins have evolved from supporting tools for crypto trading to core assets of on-chain finance, gradually embedding into the global financial system. With the Fed’s rate hike cycle nearing its end, the US dollar hegemony being challenged, and cross-border payments seeking efficiency breakthroughs, stablecoins are gaining recognition as ‘on-chain US dollars’. The July 2025 passage of the US ‘GENIUS ACT’, G7’s recognition of stablecoins as ‘digital dollar alternatives’, and emerging markets incorporating them into foreign exchange policies have ignited a financial race around ‘anchor assets’. Stablecoins are not just liquidity engines in DeFi but also key bridges between Web3 and the real economy. This article provides a systematic analysis of stablecoin types, trends, regulatory landscapes, sovereignty博弈, and investment opportunities.

II. Market Status: Hundreds of Billions in Scale, Structural Differentiation, and Explosive Use Cases

The stablecoin market has exceeded $250 billion, showing a highly concentrated structure: Tether’s USDT dominates with a $150.335 billion market cap (61.27% share), while Circle’s USDC follows with $60.822 billion (24.79%). Together, they control 86.06% of the market, forming a ‘duopoly’ deeply rooted in crypto financial infrastructure.

USDT: Global Layout and Grey Market Penetration

USDT’s strength lies in multi-chain deployment (TRON, Ethereum, etc., with TRON accounting for over 50% of issuance) and low transaction costs, making it the top choice for OTC and CEX settlements in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. In high-inflation countries like Venezuela, Turkey, and Nigeria, USDT has become a de facto ‘alternative dollar’ and a settlement tool in grey financial systems. Tether’s profitability is remarkable—H1 2025 net profit exceeded $5.7 billion, mainly from short-term US Treasury holdings, which influence money market rates (1% share in T-bills may impact short-term rates by 3.8-6.3 basis points), evolving into a ‘stablecoin financial institution’.

USDC: Compliance-Focused Institutional Path

USDC prioritizes compliance, collaborating closely with US regulators and expanding multi-chain issuance (on over 10 blockchains). It is trusted by TradFi-CeFi integrated institutions but lags behind USDT in grassroots adoption and DeFi usage due to limited grey market access.

Emerging Forces: The Rise of Synthetic Stablecoins

Projects like Ethena’s USDe have surged, with market cap skyrocketing from $146 million in early 2024 to $4.889 billion (over 334x growth). USDe’s ‘hedged ETH perpetual positions + yield protocol’ model demonstrates market demand for non-custodial, contract-driven stable assets, though it has not yet撼动 the duopoly.

III. Regulatory Game: Stablecoins as a New Variable for Financial Stability

Stablecoins have moved from ‘crypto fringe tools’ to macro financial policy focus, with global regulatory strategies diverging:

  • US: Policy debates persist among regulators (Treasury, SEC, CFTC) on stablecoin classification. The ‘Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act’ promotes a framework of ‘issuer licensing, reserve auditing, and bank custody’ amid political and technical博弈.
  • EU: MiCA classifies stablecoins as ‘Electronic Money Tokens (EMT)’ and ‘Asset-Referenced Tokens (ART)’, imposing strict transparency, reserve, and capital requirements, signaling a shift from suppression to institutionalized regulation.
  • Asia: Singapore, Japan, and Hong Kong adopt flexible approaches. Hong Kong Monetary Authority explicitly supports fiat-backed stablecoins, exploring ‘local HKD stablecoins’; Gulf countries promote CBDC-stablecoin coexistence for next-gen cross-border payments.

Regulatory博弈 centers on balancing monetary sovereignty, financial stability, and innovation. As a ‘third currency’, stablecoins challenge traditional finance, prompting central banks to accelerate CBDC development (e.g., digital yuan, digital euro), creating competition between official and on-chain currency systems.

IV. Trend Outlook: Decentralized, Multi-Currency, Protocol-Native Stablecoins

Stablecoins are entering a new phase beyond ‘centralized USD stablecoin dominance’, moving toward coexistence of ‘decentralized, multi-currency, protocol-native’ models:

Decentralized Stablecoins Regain Momentum

Driven by regulatory risks of centralized stablecoins, DAI and sUSD are returning via integrated asset portfolios, risk hedging, and on-chain rate mechanisms. Ethena’s USDe pioneers a ‘Delta-Neutral strategy + on-chain derivatives yield’ model, creating ‘yield-driven stablecoins’ with its DeFi Option Rate (DOR) defining on-chain ‘yield curves’.

Accelerated Multi-Currency Anchoring

Global ‘de-dollarization’ fuels non-USD stablecoins (e.g., EURS, EURe, HKD stablecoins). Emerging markets demand multi-currency stablecoins as ‘intermediary currencies’ for cross-border remittances under capital controls. A dual-track system may emerge: ‘centralized USD stablecoins for global liquidity + compliant local stablecoins for domestic settlements’.

Rise of Protocol-Native Stablecoins

Protocols like Curve (crvUSD) and Aave (GHO) issue endogenous stablecoins collateralized by in-system assets (staked tokens, Gas coins, RWA), deeply integrating protocol liquidity, governance, and revenue distribution to build ‘protocol-owned monetary systems’ for ‘on-chain sovereign currency experiments’.

V. Investment & Risks: Who Will Win the Stablecoin War?

Stablecoin investment tracks include four categories: traditional centralized issuers (Tether, Circle), emerging compliant platforms (Paxos, Monerium), DeFi-driven projects (Ethena, Curve), and chain-native/L2 stablecoins (Aave GHO).

  • Tether (USDT): Cash cow with strong liquidity and grey market advantages but faces compliance ceilings and regulatory risks.
  • Circle (USDC): Strong compliance moat with multi-chain deployment but limited overseas penetration and suppressed DeFi usage.
  • DeFi New Forces (e.g., USDe): ‘Yield+algorithm+derivatives arbitrage’ models offer high scalability but carry hidden Ponzi risks, mechanism complexity, and regulatory uncertainty.
  • Protocol-Native Stablecoins: Tie to protocol governance and growth but depend on parent protocol status, risking ‘protocol decline-liquidity depletion’ loops.

Winners in the stablecoin war must possess five core capabilities: robust anchoring mechanisms, user scenario penetration, regulatory compliance, on-chain ecosystem synergy, and sustainable value capture.

VI. Conclusion: Stablecoins as the ‘Sovereign Anchor’ of On-Chain Finance

Stablecoins are not speculative assets but core operating mechanisms of on-chain economies—’USD blood’ for DeFi, ‘energy’ for Web3 payments, and ‘safety belts’ for emerging markets against inflation. Over the next five years, stablecoins will evolve from ‘supporting roles’ to key components of the new digital capitalism order, marking the start of systemic layout.

Read More《稳定币深度研究报告:下一轮金融变革的锚点资产》

This content is AI-generated and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise your own rational judgment.

链上探索《稳定币深度研究报告:下一轮金融变革的锚点资产》

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XiaoTong

A cheerful and outgoing guy who loves making friends, currently serving as an assistant at aiwiselnk.com. Skilled in the fundamentals of entrepreneurship, classic business models, and general knowledge. My motto: “Every attempt is a valuable learning opportunity.”I’m passionate about helping global entrepreneurs succeed in innovation and business ventures in China.

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