Crypto Market Enters ‘Defensive Mode’ Amid Trump Tariff Shock: Bitcoin Dips Below $115K, What Lies Ahead for August?

Bitcoin failed to breach $120K, Ethereum and SOL plunge in sync, as the crypto market sees another correction. With intensified long-short divergence, over $637M in liquidations, and Trump’s tariff policy landing, market sentiment has shifted into ‘high-pressure mode’.

Market Overview: Bitcoin Below $115K, Ethereum Plunges Nearly 6% in a Day

After multiple unsuccessful attempts to break the $120K mark, Bitcoin (BTC) prices turned lower. According to OKX data, Bitcoin fell 3.35% in the past 24 hours, breaking below daily support, currently trading at $114,840. Ethereum (ETH) performed even weaker, dropping 5.96% in 24 hours to $3,635. SOL has declined for the fifth consecutive day with almost no rebound,暂报168 USD.

The market is locked in a heated long-short battle, with sentiment at a standstill. In the past 24 hours, 162,820 traders were liquidated, involving $637 million in total—long liquidations accounted for over 90% at $588 million, while short liquidations stood at $48.76 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance’s ETHUSD perpetual contract, amounting to $13.79 million.

Macro Disturbances: Trump Tariffs Spark Safe-Haven Demand, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Cool

Behind the market pullback, macro policies are a key trigger. Former U.S. President Trump signed a new tariff executive order yesterday, imposing tariffs of 15%-41% on imports from 67 trading partners, pushing overall rates to their highest in a century. Notably, the policy takes effect on August 7 (originally expected August 1), interpreted as a ‘buffer period for negotiations’, but still fueling concerns over the global trade environment.

Meanwhile, Fed policy expectations are shifting. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 61.8% probability of rates staying unchanged in September, with a 38.2% chance of a 25-basis-point cut (down from 60.9% on July 30). Diminished rate cut expectations have further suppressed risk appetite, amplifying defensive sentiment in crypto markets.

Regulatory & Institutional Developments: Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Rules Launch, Corporates ‘Hoard’ Over $100B in Crypto

Hong Kong’s regulatory progress brings positives. On August 1, Hong Kong’s ‘Stablecoin Ordinance’ officially took effect, with the HKMA releasing the ‘Guidelines for Licensed Stablecoin Issuers’ to clarify licensing thresholds and regulatory frameworks. According to Securities Times, Bank of China (Hong Kong), Standard Chartered Hong Kong, and other note-issuing banks may be first to apply, with multiple banks and tech firms筹备中. Currently, 44 institutions have upgraded their securities trading licenses, covering stablecoin trading, custody, etc., laying the groundwork for a compliant ecosystem.

Corporate capital remains a key market pillar. Galaxy Research reports that companies like Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet hold $100 billion in crypto assets, including 791,662 BTC (≈$93 billion, 3.98% of circulating supply) and 1.3 million ETH (≈$4 billion, 1.09% of supply). MSTR’s Q2 earnings shone: $14.03 billion revenue (7,106% YoY), holding 628,791 BTC (average cost $73,277), and plans to issue $4.2 billion in STRC to buy more BTC.

On-Chain Dynamics: Whales Accumulate ETH on Dips, Leveraged Traders Get Wiped Out

On-chain data reveals shifting token distribution. A whale that previously profited $73.96 million from ETH trades transferred 173 million USDT to Wintermute in the past 4 hours, purchasing 20,000 ETH (≈$74.06 million), now holding 40,000 ETH (average cost $3,121). Another new wallet received 23,314 ETH (≈$88.27 million) from Galaxy Digital, with total holdings reaching 62,966 ETH (≈$233 million).

However, leveraged trading risks are evident. Contract trader AguilaTrades saw their BTC long position liquidated again on HyperLiquid, with cumulative losses hitting $39.8 million, leaving the account nearly depleted.

August Strategy: ETH as Mainstay? KOL Recommends ‘Long ETH + Short Weak Altcoins’

Amid market divergence, crypto KOL @0xSunNFT proposed a hedging strategy: long ETH and short a basket of weak altcoins at a 1:1 ratio. The logic: ETH is the current uptrend’s mainstay, prominent in stablecoin narratives, with institutional funds unlikely to flow to non-mainstream tokens. If the rally continues, ETH may lead; if it weakens, ETH has institutional support, while altcoins are more vulnerable.

As the market navigates policy uncertainties and capital博弈, investors are advised to manage positions and wait for clearer trends.

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This content is AI-generated and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise your own rational judgment.

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