ETH’s Comeback? Policy, Capital, and Data Align for Structural Revaluation
At the end of 2024, Ethereum (ETH) endured a “winter”—plummeting from $4,000 to $1,400, a drop of over 65%. Traders and early whales panic-sold, triggering a massive market shakeup. The ETH/BTC exchange rate also fell to 0.018, nearly returning to its 2019 bull market starting point.
But will history repeat? Just as market confidence in ETH hit a low, structural shifts are quietly unfolding: clearer policy boundaries, returning institutional capital, self-correction by the Ethereum Foundation (EF), positive on-chain data divergences, and renewed industry focus. ETH may be brewing a value revaluation.
Policy Tailwinds: Crypto Regulation Shifts from “Crackdown to Acceptance”—ETH as a Compliance Beneficiary
Macroscopically, the crypto industry is emerging from the gray area. Key bills like the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act have made progress, and the SEC has begun discussing exemption frameworks for DeFi. Regulatory attitudes are shifting from “repulsion” to “limited encouragement.”
As the backbone of DeFi and the core settlement layer for stablecoins and NFTs, Ethereum is naturally embedded in compliance frameworks. When regulatory clarity emerges, institutions will first value ETH as the “orthodox infrastructure.”
Capital Returns: Public Companies Pile In—ETH as a “New Strategic Reserve Favorite”
Starting with U.S. listed firm SharpLink announcing an ETH strategic reserve, companies like Siebert Financial, Treasure Global, and Bit Digital followed suit, adding ETH to their balance sheets. Known as the “ETH version of MicroStrategy,” SharpLink further increased holdings by 7,689 ETH, bringing its total to 205,634 (worth ~$530 million at the current $2,600 price).
Institutional moves are even more telling: On July 3, Abraxas Capital withdrew 48,823 ETH ($126 million) from exchanges, and a wallet疑似 linked to Matrixport withdrew 40,734 ETH ($104 million). 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino noted that Coinbase already holds over $335 million in ETH on its balance sheet, with Robinhood and others set to follow—competition for ETH ownership among L2s has already begun.
Foundation Self-Correction: Transparent Governance Rebuilds Trust
The Ethereum Foundation, once criticized for “insufficient transparency,” is overhauling its governance: restructuring R&D teams, cutting staff, and releasing a new fiscal policy document clarifying asset management strategies, ETH sale mechanisms, and long-term commitments to the DeFi ecosystem. This is not just self-correction but a signal to the market: ETH will uphold credible neutrality and institutional legitimacy.
Data Backing: On-Chain Indicators Reveal “Upside Momentum”
- Stablecoin Ecosystem Thrives: Weekly active unique users of Ethereum-based stablecoins exceed 750,000 (all-time high), with USDT ($73 billion) and USDC ($41 billion) accounting for ~85% of global stablecoin market capitalization.
- Staking and Long-Term Holding Surge: Since June 2025, over 500,000 new ETH have been staked, pushing total network staking to a record 35 million ETH. “Never-sold ETH” accumulation addresses hold a record 22.8 million ETH, with long-term holders accelerating purchases during June’s consolidation—diverging from price trends.
- ETF Inflows Continue: ETH spot ETFs have seen 9 consecutive weeks of inflows, with $1.17 billion in June. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts second-half inflows could reach $10 billion—as more stablecoins and stocks trade on Ethereum, traditional investors will better grasp its value.
Industry Leaders “Unite in Endorsement”—Faith Returns
- 1confirmation’s Nick Tomaino: ETH is the cornerstone of industry development; values like credible neutrality, open-source, and permissionless innovation must be preserved.
- Bankless Co-Founder David Hoffman: ETH’s investment in MEV minimization, akin to “compliance efforts” in traditional finance, will boost TradFi adoption.
- ZKsync’s Alex Gluchowski: Solana cannot compete with ETH in decentralization and censorship resistance, nor in performance with single-sequencer L2s.
- Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin: ETH Layer 1 will become the “global master ledger”—credibly neutral, censorship-resistant, tamper-proof, with ever-increasing decentralization.
Conclusion: ETH, This Time It’s Different
Every faith revival starts in the market’s coldest hour. After the crash, ETH’s token structure is “clean,” and marginal capital inflows could trigger a price rebound. While prices oscillate, value is quietly transforming—ETH may truly be back.
Read More《五大上涨逻辑日渐清晰，ETH或迎结构性反转》
This content is AI-generated and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise your own rational judgment.
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