I. Industry Risk Analysis

(1) Policy Risk

The coal tar industry is currently in the transition stage between the deepening of policy implementation and assessment and adjustment. Entrepreneurs face multi – dimensional policy risks: Environmental supervision remains under high pressure. The implementation of “dual – carbon” detailed rules in various regions forces enterprises to upgrade their environmental protection facilities. The sudden increase in short – term costs may squeeze the survival space of small and medium – sized enterprises. The industrial access policies are accelerating differentiation. Many places have clearly restricted the construction or expansion of traditional coal tar projects, but there is no unified support standard for new deep – processing technologies, and the tolerance for errors in technology route selection is low. Industry standards are being updated frequently. Some provinces have put forward requirements higher than national standards for indicators such as volatile organic compound emissions and hazardous waste treatment, increasing the uncertainty of compliance investment. The carbon tariff policy in the international market is gradually exerting pressure. The implicit costs of export – oriented enterprises are rising, and the shrinking policy arbitrage space is forcing the transformation of the entire industrial chain.

(2) Economic Risk

The coal tar industry is currently significantly affected by economic cycle fluctuations. The weak demand in downstream cyclical industries such as steel and chemical industries has blocked price transmission. Coupled with the intensified fluctuations in raw material prices caused by the weak global economic recovery, enterprises face the dual risks of inventory impairment and cash – flow pressure. Against the background of over – capacity and tightening environmental protection policies, the industry’s profit margin has been continuously narrowing. If start – up enterprises cannot accurately grasp the cycle inflection point and establish differentiated cost – control capabilities, they are likely to be trapped in price wars and at risk of debt default. The narrowing of financing channels in the short term will further amplify the survival pressure.

(3) Social Risk

The coal tar industry faces social risks brought about by the awakening of environmental awareness among the younger generation. New – generation consumers and corporate decision – makers tend to choose low – carbon alternatives, and the demand in the traditional market is continuously shrinking. Driven by the changes in inter – generational values at the policy level, environmental protection regulations are being updated at an accelerated pace. The pressure of regional production restrictions and carbon taxes has increased sharply, forcing enterprises to upgrade their technologies while significantly increasing compliance costs. Maintaining community relations has become more difficult. Generation Z residents are more sensitive to environmental health. Project implementation is prone to encounter environmental protests and public – opinion crises, and the cost of maintaining brand reputation has doubled.

(4) Legal Risk

Currently, the legal risks in the coal tar industry are mainly concentrated in environmental protection compliance and production safety: As environmental protection regulations become stricter, non – compliance in the treatment of wastewater, waste gas, and hazardous waste will trigger high – value fines, production suspension for rectification, and lawsuits. If safety regulations such as explosion – proof and leakage – proof measures are not implemented in high – risk production processes, accidents will lead to criminal liability and civil compensation. Policies such as industry access thresholds, hazardous chemicals business licenses, and product quality inspection standards are being updated frequently. Violations may directly lead to the revocation of qualifications. Enterprises need to establish a dynamic compliance monitoring mechanism to avoid survival crises caused by lagging regulations or implementation loopholes.

II. Entrepreneurship Guide

(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Opportunities

Currently, entrepreneurial opportunities in the coal tar industry are mainly concentrated in the development of high – value products and the upgrading of environmental protection technologies: Use high – value components such as anthracene and carbazole in coal tar to prepare new energy materials such as lithium – battery anode materials and carbon fiber precursors. Optimize the short – process distillation process to reduce energy consumption and develop high – performance road modifiers based on coal pitch. Establish centralized deep – processing bases in cooperation with coking enterprises to promote the closed – loop of the coal tar – carbon black – rubber tire industrial chain. Integrate the scientific research resources of universities to tackle hazardous waste treatment technologies, convert coal tar dephenolization wastewater into raw materials for fine chemicals, and simultaneously meet environmental protection supervision requirements and economic benefits.

(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Resources

Entrepreneurs in the coal tar industry should first integrate support for clean production technologies (cooperate with universities and environmental protection institutions to develop low – pollution processes), stable raw material supply channels (lock in long – term cooperation agreements with coking plants), policy resources for circular economy (seek local government subsidies for environmental protection technological transformation and tax incentives), financing channels for green industries (connect with government – guided funds and special carbon – neutral credit). At the same time, establish a hazardous chemicals transportation alliance (share regional professional logistics resources) to reduce operating costs, and obtain the latest environmental protection technology standards and market access dynamics through industry associations.

(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Teams

Entrepreneurs in the coal tar industry should first form a composite team with experience in chemical process technology, environmental protection compliance management, and bulk commodity trading. Core technical positions should be staffed with process engineers with more than ten years of experience in coal tar deep – processing, paired with an operation manager familiar with the safety production management of hazardous chemicals, and a market expansion specialist proficient in the coal chemical industry chain (focusing on downstream application scenarios such as coal pitch and carbon materials). It is recommended that the core team hold no less than 60% of the shares to maintain decision – making efficiency. At the same time, establish a consultant library of hazardous waste treatment experts to deal with increasingly strict environmental protection inspections. The team should reserve 20% of flexible positions to introduce financial talents familiar with coal tar futures hedging to deal with the risk of raw material price fluctuations.

(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Risks

Entrepreneurs in the coal tar industry need to focus on environmental protection compliance and production safety. First, complete the environmental impact assessment and approval and equip with efficient desulfurization and dust – removal facilities. Actively connect with local ecological and environmental departments to establish a regular monitoring mechanism. In the supply chain, implement a system of alternative raw material suppliers, and sign stepped – pricing agreements with more than three coking plants to hedge against the risk of raw material price fluctuations. Choose deep – processing directions with high refinement rates and policy encouragement, such as naphthalene and wash oil, and avoid restricted basic products such as coal pitch. Reserve 20% of emergency reserves in capital allocation to deal with sudden environmental protection technological transformation. Obtain information on hazardous waste disposal subsidy policies through industry associations and apply for provincial circular economy special funds at the same time. Establish a quarterly inspection system by third – party environmental supervisors to resolve potential administrative penalty risks in advance.