I. Industry Risk Analysis
(1) Policy Risk
During the policy – making stage, the frequent changes in the subsidy details of technical routes in different regions lead to the distortion of the expected project revenue model. In the implementation stage, local protectionism raises the entry barriers for local enterprises, and cross – regional projects face asymmetric supervision. At the evaluation stage, the poor connection between subsidy reduction and the green certificate trading mechanism puts pressure on the cash flow of existing projects. In the adjustment period, the opaque electricity price floating mechanism narrows the arbitrage space of peak – valley price differences, which impacts the economic viability of energy storage. Entrepreneurs need to be vigilant about the risk of “betting” on technical routes caused by the shortening of the policy iteration cycle.
(2) Economic Risk
Under the economic cycle fluctuations, the wind power generation and energy storage battery system integration industry faces risks such as the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices (e.g., lithium, steel, etc.) which drives up production costs, the difficulty in project financing due to rising interest rates, and the possible reduction of new – energy subsidies by local governments during an economic slowdown. Meanwhile, during an economic recession, the demand for energy storage from industrial and commercial users shrinks, and supply chain disruptions lead to project delivery delays. During an economic overheating period, there are risks of a sharp increase in labor costs and vicious price competition. The stability of cash flow is squeezed from both sides.
(3) Social Risk
From the perspective of inter – generational consumption, the wind power generation and energy storage integration industry faces the risk of a consumption gap between the environmental protection payment willingness of the younger generation and the cost sensitivity of the middle – aged and elderly. Although Generation Z pursues the low – carbon concept, their actual purchasing power has not been fully released, while the main consumer group has doubts about the economic viability of high – priced green power products, resulting in a mismatch between real and virtual market demand. At the same time, the speed of technological iteration far exceeds the public’s cognitive update cycle. The difference in the trust in green technology between generations is likely to cause social disputes. Coupled with the inter – generational fairness doubts under the expectation of subsidy reduction, it may catalyze public opinion’s accusation of the industry’s “false demand”, forming an implicit barrier at the level of social acceptance.
(4) Legal Risk
From the perspective of the control environment, the reduction of policy subsidies may lead to a shrinkage in revenue, and strict requirements for land approval and environmental assessment compliance increase the upfront costs. In risk assessment, one needs to be vigilant about the sharp increase in disposal costs caused by stricter battery recycling regulations and the technological compliance pressure caused by the upgrading of energy storage system safety standards. In control activities, the long – drawn – out process of grid connection permits is likely to delay grid connection, and intellectual property disputes may hinder technological commercialization. At the information communication level, one needs to track the changes in the new – energy energy storage allocation ratio policies in different regions in real – time to prevent project failures due to non – compliance with energy storage capacity configuration. In the monitoring stage, there is pressure from additional carbon cost accounting due to the adjustment of carbon emission trading rules, and in cross – border projects, there are legal risks in the supply chain caused by trade barriers for battery materials.
II. Entrepreneurship Guide
(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Opportunities
The current entrepreneurial opportunities in the field of wind power generation and energy storage battery integration lie in developing modular energy storage adaptation systems, designing plug – and – play energy storage devices for small and medium – sized wind farms to solve the problem of wind power volatility; building a regional coordinated dispatching platform for wind, solar and energy storage to integrate the redundant power resources of distributed power stations below 10MW; deploying the cascade utilization technology of retired power batteries and entering the county – level energy storage market with secondary energy storage packs whose cost is 40% lower than that of new batteries; developing intelligent operation and maintenance SaaS for energy storage systems to provide paid services such as battery health prediction and fault diagnosis, and seizing the rigid demand for the maintenance of existing equipment.
(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Resources
Focus on the integration of upstream and downstream resources in the industrial chain. Prioritize locking in high – quality energy storage battery suppliers and signing long – term procurement agreements to control cost fluctuations. Establish a joint R & D mechanism with wind power equipment manufacturers to share test data and grid connection resources. Quickly connect with the site subsidies and power consumption indicators of local new – energy industrial parks and strive to be included in the “integrated wind, solar and energy storage” demonstration projects supported by local governments. Build an advisory committee composed of power system experts, battery engineers and project EPC parties. Apply for innovation funds for high – tech small and medium – sized enterprises and carbon emission right pledge financing in a targeted manner. Relieve the pressure of fixed – asset investment through equipment financial leasing. Simultaneously layout the customer resource network for two application scenarios: industrial and commercial energy storage and grid – side frequency regulation.
(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Teams
Entrepreneurial teams need to strengthen the complementarity between technology integration and market response capabilities. Prioritize recruiting compound talents with experience in wind energy system development, battery energy storage technology and grid connection. The core members should cover three major fields: power electronics R & D (such as converter design), energy storage battery thermal management (to solve the safety problem of lithium batteries), and new – energy project financing (familiar with green power trading rules). The founder must have at least one partner with a background in state – owned energy enterprises to deal with project approval barriers. At the same time, a dynamic equity adjustment mechanism (for example, setting up an option pool according to the technology iteration cycle) should be established. The team should maintain a lean scale of less than 15 people and hold weekly cross – departmental technology coordination meetings. Special attention should be paid to recruiting technical compliance specialists with experience in energy storage certifications such as UL1973/IEC62619.
(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Risks
Strengthen the independent R & D and third – party certification of core technologies, and reduce the complexity of system integration through modular design. Select energy storage battery suppliers in multiple regions and sign supply agreements with leading enterprises for more than three years to hedge against lithium price fluctuations. Establish a policy research team to dynamically track the adjustment of the wind and solar energy storage allocation ratio, subsidy reduction rhythm and grid connection details in each province, and update the project economic calculation model quarterly. Prioritize the layout of high – turnover scenarios such as industrial and commercial energy storage, control heavy – investment risks with the EPC + operation and maintenance light – asset model, and develop virtual power plant dispatching algorithms to achieve superimposed benefits on the load side. Strictly follow international safety standards such as UL9540 and establish a full – life – cycle traceability system for batteries to deal with environmental protection review risks.
