1. Industry Risk Analysis

(1) Policy Risk

The live-streaming sales industry of Baijiu (Chinese liquor) faces dual risks during the policy exploration and adjustment periods. With the wild growth of the new live-streaming e-commerce format, policy formulation has gradually entered a stage of intensive adjustment. Entrepreneurs may encounter risks associated with the temporary policy vacuum, such as frequent changes in tax collection regulations (e.g., the method of individual income tax assessment for anchors), unclear advertising compliance standards (e.g., the boundaries of efficacy claims for liquor), and ambiguous division of platform responsibilities (e.g., joint liability for fake liquor). The expected policy pressure as the industry approaches the standardization stage forces enterprises to face survival challenges due to the sharp increase in compliance costs, including stricter approval for live-streaming qualifications (e.g., the licensing system for liquor live-streaming), enhanced protection of minors (e.g., restrictions on time slots and traffic), and regional sales barriers (e.g., restrictions on inter-provincial circulation).

(2) Economic Risk

The live-streaming sales industry of Baijiu faces multiple risks brought about by economic cycle fluctuations. During an economic downturn, consumers reduce their spending on optional consumption, resulting in weak demand for high-end Baijiu as a non-essential item. The cost of live-streaming traffic rises during an economic contraction cycle, and platform algorithm adjustments lead to a non-linear increase in customer acquisition costs. During the prosperous period of the industry, a large number of competitors enter the market, creating a highly competitive “red ocean.” Coupled with the impact of the inventory cycle, price collapses are likely to occur. When monetary policy tightens, the financing channels for small and medium-sized anchors shrink, and cash flow pressure may lead to a broken capital chain. During an overheated economic period, rising raw material costs and surging logistics fees squeeze the profit margin, which is already affected by a high return rate.

(3) Social Risk

Live-streaming sales of Baijiu face the risk of generational cognitive disconnect. The younger generation pursues entertainment-based consumption, and excessive marketing is likely to be questioned as vulgar content, which weakens the brand’s cultural value. Middle-aged and older customers have low trust in live-streaming, and opaque product information can easily lead to disputes over false advertising. Generational differences in consumption habits result in insufficient user stickiness, making it difficult to sustain traffic conversion. When platform supervision tightens, the industry has weak anti-risk capabilities. Negative interpretations of “dining table culture” in public opinion may intensify generational value conflicts and trigger policy supervision risks.

(4) Legal Risk

Entrepreneurs in the live-streaming sales industry of Baijiu face multiple legal risks. Firstly, there is the risk of qualification compliance. They need to obtain both a food business license and an online cultural business license. Conducting live-streaming sales without proper filing will result in administrative penalties. Secondly, there is the risk of advertising and promotion. Anchors using absolute terms such as “the strongest taste” or “therapeutic effects” in their advertising are likely to violate the Advertising Law, and the maximum fine for such violations can reach one million yuan. Thirdly, there is the risk of protecting minors. Failing to set up an obvious age verification mechanism for alcohol purchases may violate the Law on the Protection of Minors. Fourthly, there is the risk of tax inspection. Some anchors using personal accounts to receive payments are under the key supervision of tax authorities. Fifthly, there is the risk of intellectual property rights. Unauthorized use of celebrity portraits or background music may lead to infringement lawsuits. Sixthly, there is the risk of product quality. Selling products that do not meet food safety standards will result in joint liability for tenfold compensation.

2. Entrepreneurship Guide

(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Opportunities

Entrepreneurs in the live-streaming sales industry of Baijiu can focus on niche markets to discover opportunities. They should focus on providing online customized services for mid – to high – end brands and regional specialty Baijiu, and use the live – streaming scenario to restore traditional brewing processes to enhance the user experience. For the younger consumer group, they can develop small – capacity products with cultural and creative co – branded designs, and build trust in the vertical field through a matrix of influencers. By integrating supply chain resources in the production area, they can create a “factory direct sales + cellar storage traceability” model to reduce intermediate costs, and combine interactive gameplay such as limited – time discounts and blind – box lotteries to improve conversion rates. At the same time, they can build a WeChat private – domain community for wine lovers to deepen repeat purchases, forming a closed – loop operation system of “live – streaming to attract traffic – private – domain to retain customers.”

(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Resources

Entrepreneurs in the live – streaming sales industry of Baijiu need to focus on integrating five types of resources: supply chain resources (establish stable cooperation with well – known wineries or distributors to ensure a supply of genuine products at low prices), platform resources (thoroughly understand the traffic rules of mainstream platforms such as Douyin and Kuaishou, and strive for official live – streaming support policies and traffic preferences), content resources (form an anchor team with product knowledge, live – streaming skills, and scene – control abilities, and equip them with professional lighting and sound – recording equipment), data resources (establish a user portrait analysis system to monitor real – time GMV conversion rates and repeat – purchase data), and compliance resources (improve the food circulation license, online liquor sales filing, and after – sales service system to avoid the risk of false advertising). It is recommended to use resources such as factory drop – shipping, platform service providers for operation, and third – party data monitoring tools in a light – asset model to dynamically optimize the input – output ratio.

(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Teams

Entrepreneurs in the live – streaming sales industry of Baijiu should build a complementary ability combination around the core team. The founder should first recruit members with live – streaming operation experience (traffic acquisition and conversion skills), professional Baijiu knowledge (product identification and supply chain resources), and the ability to build an after – sales service system (logistics and customer complaint handling), forming an iron – triangle structure of “traffic operator + industry veteran + service expert.” Through a dynamic equity incentive mechanism (such as distributing income according to the live – streaming GMV in a stepped manner), key talents can be retained. Regular Baijiu tasting training and script – co – creation meetings should be organized to strengthen the team’s unified understanding of the product value. Considering the volatility of live – streaming traffic, at least two anchors who can substitute for each other should be arranged, and a flexible cooperation list of suppliers (original factory authorization, regional distributors, and customized OEM channels) should be established to deal with sudden supply – chain risks.

(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Risks

Entrepreneurs in the live – streaming sales of Baijiu need to focus on controlling risks related to qualification review, product compliance, and taxation. They should ensure that they have a business license and a food business license. Suppliers with quality inspection reports should be strictly screened, and the script in the live – streaming room should not exaggerate the efficacy or imply medical effects. Tax structure should be planned in advance to avoid inspection risks caused by using personal accounts to receive payment for goods. In terms of traffic acquisition, it is recommended to implement an anchor matrix strategy to disperse the risk of relying on a single account. During the cold – start stage of a new account, the investment in traffic promotion should be controlled. On the supply – chain side, cooperation should be established with at least three logistics companies to avoid delivery delays caused by sudden factors such as the pandemic. In the after – sales process, a 48 – hour response mechanism should be set up, and professional customer service should be provided to handle damage claims. It is recommended to reserve six months of operating funds to deal with risks caused by changes in platform rules.