I. Industry Risk Analysis

(1) Policy Risk

The cross – border tourism service industry currently faces the risk of policy fluctuations: The epidemic control policies of various countries are frequently adjusted with the mutation of the virus. Sudden restrictive measures such as entry quarantine and flight cancellations directly affect market demand; Tense international relations have led to the tightening of visa policies (e.g., an increase in travel warnings from Europe and the United States against China), raising the market access threshold for some destinations; The “dynamic management” mechanism of outbound tourism by domestic cultural and tourism departments causes a lag in business restart. For example, the update cycle of the group – tour white list is mismatched with the market recovery rhythm; Stricter environmental protection policies drive up cross – border transportation costs (the new EU aviation carbon tax policy in 2024 will increase air ticket costs by 10 – 15%), and the decline of industry subsidies intensifies the profit pressure. Entrepreneurs need to cope with three risks caused by policy swings: poor customer source stability, a sharp increase in compliance costs, and sudden business interruptions.

(2) Economic Risk

The cross – border tourism service industry currently faces multiple risks under the fluctuation of the economic cycle: The slowdown of the global economic growth rate and the high inflation pressure in some countries suppress consumers’ non – essential spending, directly resulting in weak demand; Intensified exchange – rate fluctuations (e.g., the depreciation of the local currency) significantly drive up the cost of outbound tourism, increasing the risk of losing price – sensitive customers; The soaring international aviation fuel prices, combined with the route control caused by geopolitical conflicts, lead to continuously rising supply – chain costs and a decline in the stability of performance; During the tightening cycle of fiscal policies in various countries, the adjustment of visa policies (e.g., an increase in the deposit and an extended approval period) further weakens market liquidity. Entrepreneurs need to be vigilant against the risk of cash – flow break, especially in the medium – and short – term window period before market recovery. The high customer – acquisition cost and the extended user decision – making cycle may form a fatal gap.

(3) Social Risk

The social risks faced by the cross – border tourism service industry are mainly concentrated in inter – generational consumption conflicts and policy fluctuations: The new generation of tourists pursues personalized and digital experiences, while the middle – aged and older groups are highly dependent on safety and traditional services. The stratified demand intensifies the contradiction in service supply; Tense geopolitics and the repeated epidemic prevention policies of various countries increase market uncertainty. Sudden policies such as tightened visas and flight restrictions are likely to trigger large – scale cancellations; Generation Z is keen on social – media dissemination. Negative experiences are likely to cause the spread of public opinion, and the older customers’ awareness of safeguarding their rights has increased. Service defects may lead to high – amount compensation; There are obvious inter – generational differences in environmental protection concepts. The young consumers’ strict requirements for low – carbon travel conflict with the traditional tourism model, resulting in a sharp increase in transformation costs.

(4) Legal Risk

The cross – border tourism service industry faces multiple legal risks: The tourism regulations vary greatly from country to country, and there are regional obstacles to obtaining business qualifications (e.g., operating without a local business license constitutes illegal operation); The standards for protecting consumers’ rights and interests are different. Disputes over itinerary changes or refunds are likely to trigger trans – national lawsuits; The requirements for data privacy compliance are complex (e.g., the EU GDPR). Improper handling of user information will result in high – amount fines; Cross – border payment involves foreign – exchange control and anti – money – laundering reviews, and there are doubts about the legitimacy of capital flow; Geopolitical changes lead to sudden changes in entry – exit policies (e.g., visa restrictions), and there is a risk of policy – based disruption in the service chain; International labor relations are complex, and overseas employment may violate local labor laws.

II. Entrepreneurship Guide

(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Opportunities

Currently, the entrepreneurial opportunities in the cross – border tourism service industry are concentrated in deeply segmented markets and technology – enabled fields: Focus on “visa pain – point solutions” and develop niche theme routes for visa – free/visa – on – arrival destinations (e.g., Middle – East cultural – heritage photography tours, Nordic sustainable – lifestyle experiences); Use AI and local resources to build an “intelligent itinerary factory” to integrate fragmented overseas ground – handling services (chartered cars, tour guides, and reservations at special restaurants) and provide real – time multi – language itinerary adjustment tools; For high – end and mid – end customers, launch a “global sojourn butler service”. Combine overseas medical and educational resources to design one – to three – month theme sojourn packages, and provide value – added services such as visa extension, short – term apartment rental, and local community activities.

(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Resources

Cross – border tourism entrepreneurs should give priority to integrating local resources, focusing on establishing flexible cooperation agreements with destination hotels and transportation suppliers, and adopting a light – asset model to reduce prepaid costs; Quickly build an online reservation system through technology outsourcing (preferably choose PMS/SaaS solutions), and use social – media matrices to cultivate a private – domain traffic pool; Obtain special subsidies from government cultural and tourism departments (pay attention to the cultural and tourism cooperation funds under the “Belt and Road Initiative”), and simultaneously connect with third – party financial service institutions to develop installment – payment products; Establish a revenue – sharing mechanism with local tour – guide service agencies and allocate a multi – language service team; Strengthen the redundant design of the supply chain (reserve at least three alternative suppliers), and lock in peak – season resources through pre – purchase agreements; Focus on obtaining cooperation resources for international travel insurance and establish an emergency – response mechanism for emergencies.

(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Teams

When forming a team in the cross – border tourism service industry, priority should be given to recruiting core members with experience in international tourism supply – chain management, multi – language services, and cross – border compliance. The founder needs to maintain strong control over resources. Bind senior ground – handling resource providers through dynamic equity design, and at the same time, cultivate two or three post – 90s backbones proficient in digital marketing to form a triangular ability model of “international resources + local operation + online customer acquisition”. Conduct cross – border combat sand – table simulations every month to keep the team sensitive to visa policies, route changes, and geopolitical risks.

(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Risks

Cross – border tourism service entrepreneurs should give priority to establishing a flexible supply – chain system, signing dynamic cooperation agreements with ground – handling agencies in multiple countries, and using the deposit system to ensure the quality of performance. At the same time, reserve three to five alternative service providers to prevent the risk of sudden supply interruption; Adopt a capital – management model that mismatches the prepayment and the payment cycle of resource providers. Require customers to pay a 50% deposit 30 days in advance, and control the settlement cycle of overseas resources within 15 days after the end of the itinerary; Develop a real – time policy – monitoring system, connect to 10 official data sources such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Civil Aviation Administration, set early – warning thresholds for eight types of risks such as visa changes and route cancellations, and configure an emergency – response plan library for 72 hours; Implement a segmented service – insurance system. Split the basic insurance and additional insurance for war/epidemic according to the risk level of the destination. Customers can independently combine and purchase insurance to reduce invalid insurance premiums by 30%.