I. Industry Risk Analysis

(1) Policy Risk

The policy risks in the international express delivery industry are concentrated in the escalation of trade protectionism in various countries and the tightening of cross – border data flow supervision. Emerging markets frequently adjust tariff barriers and import restrictions (during the policy – making stage), while Europe and the United States strengthen data privacy laws and requirements for supply chain localization (during the implementation stage). At the same time, many countries are promoting green logistics regulations (such as carbon emission taxes), which increase operating costs. Entrepreneurs need to deal with sudden changes in regional policies (such as the fragmentation of customs rules in Southeast Asia), the risk of transportation route disruptions caused by geopolitics (the Ukraine – Middle East route), and the exponential growth of compliance costs due to policy iterations such as cross – border electronic invoices and tax compliance.

(2) Economic Risk

The international express delivery industry is currently facing an economic risk of being squeezed by both demand and cost. The global economic cycle has entered a downward phase, and weak consumption has led to a slowdown in the growth rate of cross – border parcels. Entrepreneurs are facing the dilemma of intensified order fluctuations. At the same time, high commodity prices combined with sharp exchange – rate fluctuations have continuously compressed the profit margins of express delivery companies with a relatively high proportion of fuel costs. New entrants need to bear the double pressure of the failure of the fuel surcharge mechanism and price wars among local logistics companies. The uncertainty of international economic and trade policies exposes cross – border e – commerce – related businesses to the risk of sudden emergence of trade barriers, forcing entrepreneurs to find a dynamic balance between heavy – asset layout and light – asset operation.

(3) Social Risk

The social risks currently faced by the international express delivery industry are concentrated in the conflict of inter – generational demands and sustainability challenges. Young consumers (Generation Z and Millennials) have high expectations for environmental protection and transparency, forcing companies to upgrade green packaging and carbon footprint tracking technologies. However, the sharp increase in transformation costs may squeeze the profits of small and medium – sized entrepreneurs. At the same time, the aging society’s dependence on the stability of traditional international logistics (such as cross – border transportation of drugs and luxury goods) conflicts with the young group’s preference for “fragmented and lightweight logistics” (small – quantity and high – frequency), resulting in a rift in the operation mode. Enterprises need to balance the high – investment global warehousing and distribution network with flexible service capabilities. A more hidden risk is that the inter – generational consumption stratification intensifies under economic fluctuations. Some young people downgrade their consumption and turn to affordable local alternatives, while the loyalty of high – net – worth middle – aged and elderly customers to high – end international express delivery is affected by geopolitics and tariff fluctuations. The double pressure may trigger a structural reshuffle in the industry.

(4) Legal Risk

The international express delivery industry faces legal compliance risks in multiple jurisdictions, including differences in customs clearance rules (such as disputes over commodity classification and tariffs), restrictions on cross – border data transmission (such as the EU GDPR’s constraints on customer information processing), bans on transporting goods to embargoed countries (affected by political sanctions), and contract disputes caused by the ambiguity of transportation liability definition (such as cross – border differences in compensation standards for damaged goods). Entrepreneurs need to build a dynamic compliance monitoring system and reduce the probability of administrative penalties and commercial defaults in cross – border operations through three lines of defense: cooperation with local legal teams, embedding compliance in electronic waybills, and covering with liability insurance.

II. Entrepreneurship Guide

(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Opportunities

The current entrepreneurship opportunities in the international express delivery industry are concentrated in three aspects: integration of cross – border e – commerce logistics, specialized services in niche markets, and technology – driven efficiency improvement. One can build a dedicated logistics network for high – growth regions (such as Southeast Asia and Latin America) and provide a one – stop “door – to – door” customs clearance solution. Develop an intelligent logistics middleware platform for small and medium – sized foreign trade enterprises, integrate orders from multiple platforms, and optimize cross – border routes using AI algorithms. Deploy carbon – neutral express delivery services in the European and American markets, and achieve ESG premium through electric vehicles, bio – fuel aircraft, and degradable packaging. Build a special transportation system with full – temperature control and blockchain traceability for high – value goods (pharmaceuticals, luxury goods), and simultaneously develop a one – stop insured value system with insurance.

(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Resources

Entrepreneurs in the international express delivery industry should focus on the light – asset model, give priority to integrating regional logistics node resources and customs clearance partners, and obtain cross – border transportation channels through strategic cooperation. Use SaaS – based intelligent routing systems (such as the Flexport model) to reduce IT investment costs, and focus on obtaining logistics data resources from niche customer groups such as Amazon sellers and independent websites. Build a local compliance team to obtain the latest tariff policies of various countries, and reduce capital occupation through the linkage of “bonded warehouses + overseas warehouses”. Explore supply chain financial resources to solve the problem of payment terms, and pay attention to the special subsidies for cross – border logistics and digital infrastructure support policies provided by governments in the RCEP region.

(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Teams

The entrepreneurship teams in the international express delivery industry should give priority to recruiting core members with experience in building cross – border logistics networks, developing digital systems, and international compliance, and strengthen regional local operation capabilities. It is recommended that the founding team include at least one partner familiar with the customs policies of major global trading areas and one engineer proficient in intelligent routing algorithms, and establish a dynamic equity incentive mechanism to maintain team stability. At the same time, a flat decision – making structure should be adopted to meet the timeliness challenges of cross – border logistics, and the emergency response plan for last – mile delivery in multiple countries should be optimized through regular war – gaming.

(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Risks

Entrepreneurs in the international express delivery industry should first establish a diversified logistics network to disperse the risk of transportation timeliness, select at least three main logistics providers, and reserve 20% of the transportation capacity for alternative channels. A professional legal team should be configured to deal with changes in customs clearance policies of various countries, and special attention should be paid to emerging environmental tariff mechanisms such as the EU CBAM. A digital cost control system should be implemented, intelligent routing algorithms should be used to optimize transportation routes, and IoT devices should be used to monitor the status of goods in real – time to reduce the loss rate. A full – chain visual tracking system should be developed for cross – border e – commerce customers, and the signing rate should be included in the KPI assessment system of carriers. A foreign exchange fluctuation hedging mechanism should be established, and 30% of the cash reserve should be retained in the US – dollar settlement area to deal with exchange – rate fluctuations. In emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, a prepayment + deposit model should be implemented to prevent the risk of payment terms, and cross – border commercial insurance should be purchased to cover risks caused by force majeure such as wars and strikes.