I. Industry Risk Analysis

(1) Policy Risk

The current policy risks in the souvenir gift box industry mainly focus on environmental protection supervision and restrictions on packaging materials (such as the upgraded “plastic restriction order”), the strengthening of food safety standards (involving quality inspections of food gift boxes), differences in local cultural gift policies (requirements for intangible cultural heritage certification or compliance of local specialties), and adjustments to tax incentives (the tax reduction policy for small and micro – enterprises may be tightened). In addition, if the support policies for the cultural and tourism industry decline, it may weaken the market demand for festival gift boxes, and the new regulations on e – commerce logistics (such as the mandatory requirement for the recycling rate of packaging) will directly increase the supply chain cost. Entrepreneurs need to be vigilant about the compliance pressure brought by the sudden increase in policy enforcement, especially small and medium – sized enterprises face higher trial – and – error costs when quickly adapting to new regulations.

(2) Economic Risk

The core risk of the souvenir gift box industry facing economic cycle fluctuations lies in the fact that the demand side fluctuates sharply with consumer confidence. As the economy slows down, corporate budgets are cut and personal disposable income decreases. The demand for business gifts and high – end private consumption weakens. Mid – and high – end souvenir gift boxes, as optional consumer goods, bear the brunt. At the same time, on the cost side, the periodic rise in the prices of upstream packaging materials and the rigid expenditure on logistics fees squeeze the profit margin. The homogenized competition of products leads to weak bargaining power. In the economic downturn, there may be a dilemma of both quantity and price decline. Small and medium – sized entrepreneurs need to be vigilant about the risks of inventory backlog and cash – flow disruption.

(3) Social Risk

With the increasing differentiation of consumption concepts between generations, the souvenir gift box industry faces multiple social risks: Generation Z pursues personalized and emotional consumption, and the aesthetic fatigue of traditional ceremonial products accelerates the iteration of product categories. However, the price sensitivity and preference for pragmatism of the middle – aged and elderly groups remain unchanged. The conflict of values between generations leads to fragmented market demand. Young consumers’ strong attention to national fashion culture and environmental protection attributes forces product upgrading, but the pressure of supply – chain transformation and cost control is significant. The differences in cultural identity between generations form an invisible barrier, and the difficulty of cross -圈层 marketing doubles. If entrepreneurs cannot accurately grasp the aesthetic gap and value – system fault between generations, they are likely to fall into the double dilemma of fuzzy product positioning or insufficient user stickiness across generations.

(4) Legal Risk

The legal risks faced by the souvenir gift box industry are concentrated in intellectual property infringement (such as lawsuits caused by the unauthorized use of designs, trademarks, or cultural elements), product quality compliance (food gift boxes need to comply with the Food Safety Law and label specifications, and cosmetic gift boxes need to be filed and meet ingredient standards), advertising compliance (false advertising and exaggerated efficacy are likely to violate the Advertising Law), consumer rights protection (disputes over returns and exchanges and incomplete information labeling may lead to claims), and customs and tax compliance in cross – border business (risks of incorrect commodity classification and lack of quarantine certificates). Entrepreneurs need to establish a product R & D review mechanism, a quality inspection process, and a legal review system, and cooperate with professional lawyers to dynamically monitor policy changes to avoid potential penalties and goodwill losses.

II. Entrepreneurship Guide

(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Opportunities

The current entrepreneurial opportunities in the souvenir gift box industry are concentrated in the customization and scenario – based innovation of niche markets: Develop differentiated products such as “national fashion IP co – branded gift boxes” and “local cultural souvenir gifts” for Generation Z and new middle – class consumer groups, and use short – video promotion, live – streaming e – commerce, and private – domain communities to accurately acquire customers. Focus on the corporate customized souvenir gift box track, reduce the cost of small – batch customization through supply – chain integration, and meet the needs of small and medium – sized enterprises with less than 500 employees for festival gifts and event peripherals. Develop the “functional souvenir gift +” model, such as embedding membership card rights in tea brand co – branded gift boxes and matching offline experience vouchers with beauty sample gift boxes to form a closed – loop consumption scenario. Entrepreneurs need to focus on balancing the flexible production capacity of the supply chain (OEM factory resources) and the cultural and creative design ability (cooperating with independent designers).

(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Resources

Entrepreneurs in the souvenir gift box industry need to focus on the integration of light – asset resources. They should first connect with local characteristic supply chains (such as local intangible cultural heritage workshops and food processing factories) to establish a flexible cooperation model to reduce the initial inventory pressure. Rely on e – commerce platform operation services and WeChat mini – program toolkits to reduce the cost of building online channels. Cooperate with regional cultural and tourism IPs, hotels, and homestays for cross – industry resource exchange to accurately reach the target customer group. Make good use of KOC resources on social media for scenario – based promotion, and quickly test market feedback through the product – selection services of live – streaming e – commerce supply – chain bases. Obtain initial start – up funds through crowdfunding platforms or cultural and creative industry support policies, and at the same time, accumulate seed – user data to optimize the product portfolio.

(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Teams

Entrepreneurs in the souvenir gift box industry need to first form a core team with design innovation, supply – chain management, and e – commerce operation capabilities. They should focus on recruiting members with experience in cultural and creative, packaging engineering, or new retail. The founder needs to lead resource integration and differentiated positioning. In the early stage, the team should allocate at least one member familiar with the development of local cultural IPs to strengthen product characteristics, and supplement partners with fast – moving consumer goods channel resources to accelerate market penetration. Adopt a flat – cooperation mechanism to quickly respond to market demand. It is recommended to use the incentive model of “quarterly goals + sales – based dividends” to enhance stability. A clear product – selection decision – making mechanism and flexible supply – chain management ability need to be established. Regularly conduct competitor analysis and user – demand research to maintain the team’s innovation ability in the directions of cultural empowerment, environmental – friendly packaging, and scenario – based customization.

(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Risks

Entrepreneurs in the souvenir gift box industry should focus on accurately positioning market demand. First, verify the popularity of products through small – batch trial sales to avoid blind inventory hoarding. Adopt the “pre – sale + flexible supply chain” model, adjust the production plan dynamically according to orders, and reduce the risk of inventory overstock. Focus on controlling the procurement cost of raw materials (for example, packaging boxes account for 40% – 60% of the cost), and reduce the marginal cost through centralized procurement or strategic cooperation with upstream manufacturers. Establish a multi – platform distribution channel combination (it is recommended that wedding companies/scenic – area stores/community group – buying account for 6:3:1) to disperse the risk of relying on a single channel. Strengthen the cultural IP attribute of products (for example, the premium of regional intangible cultural heritage co – branded products can reach 30%), and apply for design – innovation protection through appearance patents. Strictly follow the food – grade packaging certification (GB 4806.7 – 2016) and control the logistics damage rate (it is recommended to control it within 3%), and establish a quality compensation reserve mechanism.