I. Industry Risk Analysis
(1) Policy Risk
Currently, the policy risks faced by the automotive commercial complex industry are concentrated in the stages of policy implementation and adjustment. The obvious trend of the government’s subsidy reduction for new energy vehicle consumption directly weakens the ability of the complex’s main business forms to attract customers. The tightened policies on intensive land use and commercial real – estate approval have led to a sharp increase in the land acquisition cost of projects. The dynamic upgrading of environmental protection standards forces the transformation of old facilities, requiring continuous additional compliance investment. What’s more troublesome is the policy differences at the local implementation level. For example, the complex application process for charging pile subsidies and the inconsistent acceptance standards force enterprises to repeatedly adjust their operation routines. The sudden commercial power – rationing policies in some cities have lengthened the investment return cycle of the intelligent equipment in the exhibition halls. The uncertainty and retrospective adjustment in the implementation of these policy tools pose a risk of structural imbalance in cash flow for the heavy – asset model of the complex.
(2) Economic Risk
The automotive commercial complex industry is currently facing multiple risks under the economic cycle fluctuations. The slowdown of economic growth has weakened consumers’ willingness to buy cars and make derivative consumption. Coupled with the credit tightening policy, the credit cost of high – priced car consumption has increased. Under the heavy – asset model, fixed costs such as venue leasing and equipment maintenance account for more than 60% of the total cost. When the income declines, the cash flow is very likely to break. The price fluctuations in the upstream supply chain are transmitted to the procurement costs of automobile spare parts and maintenance consumables. The risk of inventory backlog intensifies as the consumption cycle lengthens. Under the impact of new energy vehicles, the transformation cost of the traditional 4S store model has increased sharply. The commercial complex needs to undertake the coordinated operation of multiple business forms such as automobile sales, maintenance, and modification. In the economic recession period, the phenomenon of “business form trampling” is likely to occur. The decline in after – sales service quality and customer unit price forms a vicious circle.
(3) Social Risk
The automotive commercial complex industry faces the risk of generational consumption gap: The younger generation (Generation Z and post – millennials) prefers new energy, shared mobility, and intelligent scenarios. Their consumption decisions are more dependent on the word – of – mouth in online communities. However, the offline complexes dominated by traditional automobile brands have a generational adaptation gap in immersive experience design and digital touch – point layout. The middle – aged consumer group (Generation X) still retains the consumption inertia of 4S stores, but their consumption power is significantly squeezed by mortgage loans, and the growth of customer unit price is weak. At the same time, the generational cognitive misalignment leads to the differentiation of brand trust. The direct – sales model of new forces has a greater impact on the traditional dealer system, increasing the customer acquisition cost. The transformation of existing properties faces the dual contradictions of the aesthetic gap of young customer groups and the service inertia of old customer groups.
(4) Legal Risk
The automotive commercial complex industry faces multiple legal risks: Land development needs to comply with the territorial spatial planning and land use change requirements. Violations may lead to the suspension of projects. The construction and operation are strictly restricted by environmental protection laws (VOCs emission standards) and fire protection laws (safety regulations for parking lots/charging piles). Non – compliance in any link will trigger administrative penalties. The Consumer Rights Protection Law requires the transparency of automobile sales financial plans. Bundled sales or concealed terms may lead to the risk of class – action lawsuits. The Personal Information Protection Law continuously upgrades the compliance requirements for customer data collection (test – drive information, consumption habits). Data leakage may face a high – value fine of 5% of the turnover. The Anti – Unfair Competition Law restricts the signing scale of exclusive cooperation agreements among automobile brands. Monopoly terms are likely to trigger regulatory reviews. There are blind spots in the supervision of prepaid funds in the membership system. The risk of misappropriating funds may be transformed into a criminal problem of illegal fund – raising. The industry as a whole is under the double pressure of rising compliance costs and policy change uncertainty.
II. Entrepreneurship Guide
(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Opportunities
Based on Timmons’ entrepreneurship process theory, entrepreneurs in the automotive commercial complex should focus on the unmet needs in the implementation of “new energy + intelligence” scenarios. They should explore opportunities in three major directions: charging pile layout, energy storage technology integration, and Internet of Vehicles services. Specifically, they can start with building a shared charging pile operation platform, developing an integrated “photovoltaic – energy storage – charging – inspection” solution, or creating an immersive commercial space themed on new energy vehicles (such as a vehicle – machine system experience hall and a battery recycling demonstration center). It is recommended to adopt a grid – like layout of “city showrooms + community fast – charging stations”. Integrate after – market service resources for automobiles through a membership – based car owners’ club, and embed value – added services such as in – vehicle entertainment system customization and intelligent parking scheduling. Focus on developing a SAAS management system that connects with the data middle – platform of automobile enterprises to form a dual – profit model of “hardware scenario + data service”. Currently, they can seize three breakthrough points: the shortage of community charging piles (the coverage rate in first – and second – tier cities is less than 40%), the lack of ecological services for vehicle – machine systems (the monthly active user rate is less than 30%), and the blank in the community operation of new energy vehicle users (the existing conversion rate is less than 15%).
(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Resources
Entrepreneurs in the automotive commercial complex should give priority to integrating site resources with convenient transportation. Actively connect with the industrial park investment – promotion policies of local governments to争取 land use indicators and infrastructure subsidies. Establish strategic cooperation with automobile brand manufacturers and financial institutions, and share the inventory capital pressure through the brand authorization + joint operation model. Focus on introducing digital infrastructure facilities such as intelligent shopping – guide systems and new energy vehicle charging piles, and simultaneously connect to local life service platforms to achieve traffic sharing. Through the resources of industry associations, connect with automobile after – market service providers in batches to form a supply – chain closed – loop of car washing, beauty treatment, modification + financial insurance. Regularly participate in industry exhibitions and new product press conferences of automobile enterprises, obtain exclusive event resources through site replacement, and build a composite resource network of “automobile sales + scenario experience + community operation”.
(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Teams
In the formation of an entrepreneurship team for the automotive commercial complex, it is necessary to give priority to recruiting core members with experience in the automotive industry chain (such as sales, maintenance, and new energy technology) and a background in commercial real – estate operation, and match them with talents in emerging fields such as digital marketing and community operation to ensure that the team has practical knowledge of the “automobile + commerce” integration scenario. Establish a clear equity distribution and dynamic adjustment mechanism to bind the long – term interests of key talents. Considering the high threshold of industry resource integration, the team should have at least one member with resources from automobile manufacturers, business districts, or the government, and establish an external cooperation advisor network. Hold cross – functional decision – making meetings every week, and quickly verify the coordination efficiency of modules such as parking lot transformation and brand co – operation based on the user’s movement – line experience.
(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Risks
Entrepreneurs in the automotive commercial complex should first control the risks of site selection and positioning. Accurately match the regional consumption power with the automobile consumption demand to avoid blindly replicating the high – end positioning, which may lead to a gap in the customer group. Establish a dynamic capital monitoring model, split the construction – period investment into 3 – 4 stages for acceptance and payment, and reserve 12 – month emergency cash flow to prevent the risk of delayed investment promotion. Adopt a space planning of “anchor stores + flexible modules”, and reserve 20% of adjustable area to cope with the replacement of new energy vehicle brands. Build a pre – review mechanism for government relations, and confirm 12 compliance documents such as land use nature, environmental assessment, and fire protection before project establishment. Construct a risk – sharing mechanism for merchants. Adopt the “minimum rent + sales sharing” model for anchor tenants such as 4S stores, and adopt a short – lease and fast – iteration strategy for catering and entertainment business forms. Deploy an Internet of Things monitoring system to monitor the flow of people in real – time, and optimize the business form ratio according to the data every quarter.
