1. Industry Risk Analysis

(1) Policy Risk

The adult diaper industry faces uncertainties during the policy implementation phase. On one hand, although the state encourages the development of the senior care industry at the policy – making level, local authorities are tightening the review of production qualifications for medical consumables. Enterprises may face a sharp increase in compliance costs due to upgraded environmental protection standards or changes in medical certification procedures. On the other hand, there is a risk of re – structuring the classification standards for raw materials during the policy adjustment window period (for example, polymer absorbent materials may be included in chemical – related supervision). This may trigger the re – approval process for production licenses. Meanwhile, fluctuations in cross – border e – commerce policies directly affect the stability of export – oriented enterprises’ tax refund incentives. In the short term, enterprises need to bear the premium of compliance costs during the policy transition period.

(2) Economic Risk

The adult diaper industry currently faces multiple risks under economic cycle fluctuations. During an economic recession, consumers’ disposable income decreases, which may delay product upgrades and lead consumers to turn to low – cost alternatives. As a result, the premium ability of mid – to high – end brands declines. In a stagflation environment, the continuous rise in the prices of petroleum – derived raw materials (such as non – woven fabrics and super absorbent polymers) combined with the increase in logistics costs directly squeezes enterprises’ profit margins. Although the industry’s demand is supported by the aging population, the production side is overly dependent on offline channels and centralized procurement models. During periods of weak consumption, it is vulnerable to the extension of payment terms from B – end customers such as hospitals and nursing homes, which may drag down cash flow. Moreover, there is a risk of the centralized procurement policy for medical consumables spreading. If the industry is included in the centralized procurement scope, price competition will intensify, and the survival pressure on small and medium – sized manufacturers will increase significantly.

(3) Social Risk

The core risks in the adult diaper industry are the suppression of the elderly’s consumption willingness by social concepts and the generational demand gap. Traditional beliefs that regard the care of the disabled as a family moral burden lead many potential users to refuse to consume actively. Under the framework of generational consumption theory, there is a gap in product value perception between young decision – makers (children) and elderly users. The difference in generational health management concepts gives rise to a “passive procurement” model, which weakens brand loyalty. At the same time, sub – cultures have symbolized the product as a carrier of “aging stigma”, and the spread on social media has increased the risk of stigmatization. The innovation of age – friendly products has failed to effectively meet the needs of Generation Z for a sense of technology and privacy protection, resulting in difficulties in cross – generational market penetration.

(4) Legal Risk

Entrepreneurs in the adult diaper industry need to pay attention to four types of legal risks: Products that fail to meet quality standards violate the Product Quality Law and may face product recalls and fines. Exaggerating absorption efficacy or medical effects in advertising is likely to violate the Advertising Law and lead to investigations. If product design plagiarizes the patents of competitors, it may trigger intellectual property litigation. In the production process, enterprises must strictly implement the Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Medical Devices (if the products belong to Class II medical devices), otherwise, they may face the revocation of their production qualifications. Failing to standardize labor contracts, overtime pay, and other provisions of the Labor Law during the employment process will lead to the risk of labor arbitration.

2. Entrepreneurship Guide

(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Opportunities

Currently, entrepreneurial opportunities in the adult diaper industry are concentrated in niche market innovation and channel optimization. Targeting the needs of the middle – aged and elderly population, develop high – cost – performance, breathable daily lightweight products, and use e – commerce platforms to accurately reach the family procurement scenario. Launch differentiated products (such as menstrual night protection pants) for young consumers and use social media to achieve youth – oriented marketing. Expand community retail channels and cooperate with nursing homes to establish a stable B2B supply system. Explore biodegradable and environmentally friendly materials and add intelligent functions such as health monitoring to increase the added value of products.

(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Resources

In the adult diaper industry, entrepreneurs should prioritize the integration of supply chain resources. Select raw material suppliers with medical – grade hygiene certifications and reduce costs through centralized procurement or joint bargaining. Cooperate with established contract manufacturers (OEM model) to reduce initial investment in production equipment. Simultaneously, develop both online e – commerce platforms (such as Pinduoduo and the health category on Douyin) and offline medical and elderly care institutions to establish a distribution network. Collaborate with nursing homes, hospitals, and other institutions to endorse the product’s functionality, and use community group – buying and senior communities for targeted promotion. Pay attention to local government subsidies for the silver economy, cooperate with universities to research biodegradable material technologies to obtain policy support, and establish a closed – loop of user feedback to optimize product iteration.

(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Teams

Entrepreneurs in the adult diaper industry should prioritize the formation of a composite team with expertise in medical care, supply chain, and channel operation. The founding team should include at least one member with a background in the medical device or senior consumer goods industry. The core team should cover three types of capabilities: On the technical side, include members familiar with the research and development of hygiene materials or medical device certifications to ensure product safety and compliance. On the production side, recruit personnel with experience in FMCG contract manufacturing management to control costs and product quality. On the marketing side, allocate members with both offline channel resources in hospitals/nursing homes and e – commerce private domain operation capabilities. It is also recommended to invite 1 – 2 senior care practitioners to join the advisory team to improve the age – friendly design of products by identifying real – world pain points. The team should establish a rapid response mechanism to adjust the supply chain response speed and service system according to the different needs of hospitals, home care, and nursing homes.

(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Risks

Entrepreneurs in the adult diaper industry should focus on product quality compliance and supply chain risk management. Prioritize contract manufacturers with medical device or hygiene product production qualifications to ensure that raw materials meet national standards such as GB/T 28004, and establish a mechanism for random inspection at the factory and sample retention for traceability. Bind high – quality channel partners through prepayment to reduce the risk of inventory overstock. Focus on precise channels such as community pharmacies and nursing homes to avoid price wars on e – commerce platforms. Plan ahead for age – friendly patented technologies to avoid infringement risks. Do not use illegal terms such as “treatment” and “antibacterial” in advertising, and introduce third – party test reports as proof of compliance. Establish a cash – flow safety cushion to deal with the problem of extended payment terms, and reduce the impact of logistics cost fluctuations through regional warehousing.