I. Industry Risk Analysis

(1) Policy Risk

From the perspective of the policy life cycle, the current second – hand book industry is in a period of policy fluctuations and faces three major risks: Firstly, the tax policy for second – hand commodity transactions is vague, and the implementation standards vary from place to place, which may lead to a sharp increase in the compliance costs of platforms. Secondly, the supervision of the cultural market is becoming stricter. The responsibility for reviewing pirated and prohibited content in the circulation of second – hand books is shifting to platforms. Upgrading the review mechanism will raise the operational threshold. Thirdly, the circular economy policy has put forward new requirements for the environmental protection standards of the recycling chain. Standardizing the disinfection and warehousing processes of old books may force the transformation of the existing warehousing model. Entrepreneurs need to be vigilant about the impact of tightened policies on the asset – light model.

(2) Economic Risk

From the theory of economic cycle fluctuations, the second – hand book industry is currently facing dual squeezes on the demand side and the cost side. During an economic downturn, consumers’ disposable income decreases, and the willingness to consume non – essential second – hand books may be weak. However, in a stagflation environment, some consumers may increase second – hand purchases to reduce living costs, resulting in structural fluctuations in market demand. Entrepreneurs find it difficult to accurately predict the growth space of the scale. At the same time, the upstream logistics and warehousing costs continue to rise due to inflationary pressure. Coupled with the increasing cost of customer acquisition caused by the intensifying competition for traffic on second – hand platforms, the profit margin is further compressed. In addition, under the expectation of an economic recession, capital investment in industries with low frequency and low customer unit price shrinks, which may exacerbate the cash – flow pressure on start – up enterprises.

(3) Social Risk

From the perspective of inter – generational consumption, the second – hand book industry faces the risk of a gap between the digital reading tendency of Generation Z and the insufficient consumption power of the middle – aged and elderly groups for physical books: Young consumers prefer e – reading and instant knowledge payment, and their desire to buy second – hand physical books continues to weaken. Although middle – aged and elderly users have an affection for paper books, their consumption frequency and customer unit price are relatively low. Coupled with the rising cost of the old – book recycling supply chain, it is difficult for the industry to form a sustainable inter – generational demand cycle. In addition, the young group’s enthusiasm for the circular economy has not been effectively translated into the driving force for second – hand book consumption. The gap in consumption concepts between generations has increased the uncertainty of market growth.

(4) Legal Risk

At the control environment level, second – hand book operators need to ensure the compliance of business licenses and publication business permits to avoid penalties for unlicensed operations. In risk assessment, they need to be vigilant about intellectual property disputes. Reselling second – hand textbooks and best – selling books may infringe on the property rights of copyright, and the mixing of pirated books into circulation will trigger infringement lawsuits. In terms of control activities, the lack of a genuine verification mechanism can easily trigger legal risks, and the failure to establish a consumer complaint handling channel may lead to rights – protection disputes. In monitoring activities, if they ignore the newly issued implementation rules of the copyright law and the requirements of the network security law, they may face the double penalty risks of data privacy leakage and the lack of record – filing for the circulation information of second – hand books.

II. Entrepreneurship Guide

(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Opportunities

The current entrepreneurship opportunities in the second – hand book industry lie in integrating online and offline resources to build a vertical and scenario – based trading and community platform. Entrepreneurs can target scenarios such as universities and communities, and provide standardized services such as intelligent pricing, recycling and consignment sales, and book disinfection and renovation through mini – programs or APPs to lower the threshold for user transactions. For high – frequency categories such as textbooks and children’s picture books, a subscription – based circular rental system can be built, and offline book clubs and idle book drifting activities can be combined to enhance user stickiness. Use big data to dig out the market demand for niche out – of – print books, establish a database of scarce books and a precise matching system, and at the same time develop innovative gameplay such as blind – box book boxes and theme book list social sharing to meet the compound needs of Generation Z consumers for cultural consumption, environmental protection concepts, and social experiences.

(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Resources

Focus on obtaining stable book sources at low prices. Install self – service book collection cabinets in universities and communities and cooperate with express delivery stations to recycle textbooks. Use new media to build a local community of book lovers for book circulation. Develop a simple barcode – scanning pricing system to reduce operating costs, and connect with publishers’ surplus goods and inventory book dealers to expand the book sources. Cooperate with public welfare organizations to launch book donation activities to obtain government resource support. Encourage users to complete book exchanges with their own logistics through a membership points system, and use an asset – light model to drive the socialized trading ecosystem of second – hand books.

(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Teams

In the formation of an entrepreneurship team in the second – hand book industry, it is advisable to give priority to recruiting core members with experience in online platform operations (such as traffic acquisition and community fission) and the ability to integrate the second – hand commodity supply chain (such as book recycling, quality inspection, warehousing and sorting), and be accompanied by young operational talents familiar with the consumption psychology of Generation Z. The founder needs to strengthen the accumulation of resources in the book industry (such as channels for surplus goods from universities/publishers), adopt an agile management model (weekly data review + AB testing), bind key positions through equity incentives for partners, and at the same time establish a lightweight external cooperation network such as part – time book reviewers/campus agents to quickly verify the business model.

(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurship Risks

Entrepreneurs in the second – hand book industry need to prioritize the management and control of inventory backlog and turnover risks. Optimize the inventory structure by dynamically monitoring sales data, focus on purchasing high – frequency circulation categories (such as textbooks and best – selling books) and match them with scarce books to increase profits. In response to market demand fluctuations, establish an online – offline linked distribution system (self – media + cooperation with local universities + multi – platform entry) to reduce dependence on a single channel. Strengthen the quality control process to ensure the standardization of book disinfection and renovation and avoid consumption disputes. Adopt the C2C consignment sales model to reduce capital occupation, and at the same time build a user points system to increase repeat purchases. Pay special attention to copyright compliance risks. For teaching – aid books, formal authorization is required, and regional policy restrictions need to be avoided in second – hand teaching – aid transactions. Explore a compound profit – making model of “books + cultural and creative products + reading communities” to hedge against the risk of declining industry profit margins.