1. Industry Risk Analysis

(1) Policy Risk

The integrated circuit industry currently faces the risk of periodic policy adjustments: During the policy – making stage, technology blockades and export controls by various countries are frequently escalating (such as the U.S. CHIPS Act). Enterprises need to cope with the sudden pressure of supply – chain restructuring. During the implementation stage, there is a risk that local subsidy policies may be delayed in implementation or have additional conditions (such as adjustments to the local procurement ratio of equipment), which directly affects the stability of cash flow. During the evaluation stage, the replacement of technology routes (such as the shift from third – generation semiconductors to fourth – generation ones) may render the original industrial support policies ineffective, and the previous R & D investments may face the risk of becoming sunk costs. If tax incentives are suddenly terminated during the policy withdrawal stage (such as the expiration of the “two – year exemption and three – year half – exemption” policy without renewal), it will directly weaken price competitiveness. Entrepreneurs must be vigilant against the risks of a sharp increase in compliance costs and the interruption of support during the transition period of policy tools.

(2) Economic Risk

The semiconductor industry is currently in the downward phase of the economic cycle. The weak global demand for consumer electronics combined with inventory overstock has led to price inversion. The utilization rate of wafer foundry capacity has dropped below 70%, dragging down the cash flow of the entire industry chain. The technological game between China and the United States has caused the costs of equipment procurement and IP licensing to surge by more than 30%. The declining premium ability of Foundry services has caused the proportion of tape – out costs of small and medium – sized design companies to exceed the 50% warning line of revenue. The risk – averse sentiment in the capital market has extended the pre – Series B financing cycle to 14 months. The gap between the shortening of the foundry payment period and the lengthening of the client payment period is rapidly consuming the operating funds of start – up enterprises.

(3) Social Risk

The integrated circuit industry faces the risk of generational consumption gaps. The high – cost – performance requirements of the younger generation for domestic chips conflict with the traditional procurement habits of middle – aged and elderly industrial decision – makers. Entrepreneurs need to not only break through the bottleneck of Moore’s Law in technological innovation (with high R & D investment and long cycles) but also resolve the generational demand gap between the “consumer – grade market dominated by Generation Z product managers” and the “supply chain of traditional industrial customers”. The reduction of policy subsidies combined with global technology blockades has intensified the risk of generational technology disconnection. If new start – up enterprises cannot bridge the transformation gap from “laboratory technology – commercialized products – cross – generational customer recognition” within 3 – 5 years, they are likely to fall into a double – kill situation of capital chain rupture and market trust crisis.

(4) Legal Risk

(Control Environment) The legal risk of intellectual property rights in the integrated circuit industry is prominent. Entrepreneurs are prone to encounter infringement disputes caused by insufficient patent layout and need to prevent the leakage of trade secrets that may be caused by reverse engineering. (Risk Assessment) Global trade controls are intensifying (such as U.S. restrictions on China’s semiconductor industry), and the compliance review of technology exports is becoming stricter. (Control Activities) Cross – border data transmission faces conflicts among privacy – protection laws and regulations of multiple countries (such as the GDPR and China’s Data Security Law). Chip design enterprises need to establish a dual – compliance system. (Information and Communication) The application of anti – monopoly laws in technology standard alliances has ambiguous areas, and joint R & D may trigger the review of concentration of undertakings. (Monitoring Activities) New regulations on supply – chain security reviews (such as the EU’s Chip Act) require tracing the source of raw materials, and start – up enterprises face the risk of a sharp increase in traceability costs in supplier management.

2. Entrepreneurship Guide

(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Opportunities

Currently, entrepreneurs in the integrated circuit industry can focus on the breakthrough opportunities in niche markets under the acceleration of domestic substitution. In the field of AI chips, they can develop low – power inference chips for edge computing to meet the real – time processing needs of scenarios such as intelligent manufacturing and intelligent security. For the electronic control systems of new – energy vehicles, they can research and develop high – reliability automotive – grade power devices and overcome the packaging and heat – dissipation technology of IGBT/SiC modules. They should seize the rising trend of the RISC – V ecosystem and develop customized processor IP cores and supporting development toolchains for vertical industries. In the field of mature processes, they can deeply optimize the processes of analog chips such as power management and signal chains and achieve pin – to – pin substitution of imported products through architectural innovation. It is recommended to choose niche products during the technology – iteration window period, rely on the production – capacity dividends of local wafer fabs, and build differentiated competitive advantages through the accumulation of process know – how.

(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Resources

Entrepreneurs in the integrated circuit industry need to focus on the integration of industrial – chain resources. They should give priority to using the special support policies for the integrated circuit industry of local governments, connect with the microelectronics laboratories and process pilot – test platforms of universities to transform technological achievements, jointly establish production – capacity underwriting agreements with local packaging and testing enterprises to reduce heavy – asset investment, obtain preferential technology licenses by contacting chip design tool (EDA) suppliers through industry exhibitions, and at the same time, apply for sub – funds of large funds and supporting financing from semiconductor industrial parks during the window period of domestic substitution policies. They should focus on recruiting process engineers with work experience in wafer fabs to form the core team.

(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Teams

Entrepreneurs in the integrated circuit industry should give priority to forming a core team with core technological capabilities, industrial experience, and cross – border cooperation capabilities. It is recommended that the founder or technical leader should have a background in semiconductor design, tape – out technology, or industrial – chain management, and at least one supply – chain expert familiar with cooperation with wafer fabs and production – capacity negotiation should be equipped. At the same time, partners with terminal – market resources (such as in the fields of consumer electronics and automotive electronics) should be introduced. More than 20% of the team members should have more than 5 years of practical industry experience. It is recommended to adopt a dual – decision – making mechanism of “technology + operation”, synchronize changes in industry technology routes and downstream customer needs on a weekly basis, focus on recruiting scarce talents in EDA tool development, packaging and testing, etc., form industrial synergy by binding technical backbones of upstream and downstream enterprises through equity, and regularly invite senior engineers from wafer fabs to serve as technical consultants to deal with the risk of process iteration.

(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Risks

Entrepreneurs in the integrated circuit industry need to focus on technology R & D, supply – chain stability, and matching with market demand. In terms of technology, modular design should be adopted to reduce trial – and – error costs, and cooperate with universities and research institutions to share patent pools to avoid repeated investment. The supply chain should establish a diversified supplier list, maintain a 3 – to 6 – month safety stock of key materials, and reduce capital occupation through the VMI model. For market verification, a “small – step and fast – iteration” strategy should be adopted. It is advisable to first enter niche markets with clear domestic substitution needs (such as automotive – grade chips) and quickly obtain customer feedback through free trials of engineering samples. For fund management, staged financing should be implemented. In the first round, strategic investors with industrial – chain resources should be introduced preferentially. Entrepreneurs should closely follow the changes in export – control policies of various countries, establish a compliance review process, and at the same time, make reasonable use of local integrated – circuit industry funds and tax – refund policies to balance the initial investment.