Positive Comments: The “Cryptocurrency Circleization” of Gold Reconstructs the Growth Logic, and Multiple Positive Factors Support Long-Term Value
The recent sharp rise in the gold price is not accidental but the result of the resonance of multiple long-term and short-term factors. Among them, the in-depth integration of gold with the cryptocurrency field (i.e., “cryptocurrency circleization”) is particularly worthy of attention. This trend not only injects new growth momentum into the gold market but also fundamentally reconstructs the pricing logic of gold.
The Expansion of Gold Stablecoins: Opening the “New Gate” for Incremental Demand
The rapid development of gold stablecoins is one of the core long-term driving forces for the rise in the gold price in this round. As mentioned in the news, currently, mainstream stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) are mainly pegged to the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, while the scales of gold stablecoins (such as PAXG and Tether Gold) are only $900 million and $800 million respectively, far behind the former’s scale in the hundreds of billions of dollars. However, this “low base” precisely means huge growth potential – the market expects that the global stablecoin scale will reach $4 trillion by 2035. As a scarce “anti-inflation + safe-haven” asset among them, the expansion potential of gold stablecoins cannot be underestimated.
The expansion of gold stablecoins directly drives up the demand for physical gold. Taking Tether as an example, the Tether Gold tokens it issues need to be pegged to physical gold on a 1:1 basis. Therefore, for every unit of tokens issued, one unit of gold needs to be reserved. As mentioned in the news, Tether has established an independent gold vault in Switzerland, reserving $8 billion worth of gold, and plans to expand its procurement volume (it is rumored that it buys 2 tons of gold per week, equivalent to the monthly gold purchase volume of the People’s Bank of China). This positive cycle of “stablecoin issuance – increased demand for gold reserves – rising gold price” is forming a new supply – demand balance: stablecoin issuers have become another long-term major gold buyer after central banks, and the supporting effect of supply – demand relationship on the gold price is further strengthened.
Safe-Haven Attribute and the Weakening of the US Dollar Credit: The “Double Insurance” Value of Gold is Highlighted
From a macro – environment perspective, the safe – haven attribute of gold and the weakening of the US dollar credit form a “dual – wheel drive.” On the one hand, frequent geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, combined with short – term risk events such as the sharp decline of US bank stocks, have continuously heated up the market’s risk – aversion sentiment, and the demand for gold as the “ultimate safe – haven asset” has been released intensively. On the other hand, the start of the Fed’s interest – rate cut cycle, the high level of US Treasury bond scale (the US Treasury bond scale has exceeded $50 trillion in 2025), and the systemic risks faced by the US dollar credit system (such as the “Powell being coerced to cut interest rates” event mentioned in the news, which weakens the independence of the Fed) have further strengthened the “de – dollarization” alternative value of gold. Historical data shows that the gold price is significantly negatively correlated with the US dollar credit. Every weakening of the US dollar credit will give rise to a historic market for gold, and the current situation is a typical verification of this law.
The Switch of Capital Allocation Logic: The High – Level Adjustment of Technology Stocks “Makes Way” for Gold
From the perspective of capital flow, the valuations of overseas technology sectors (such as Nasdaq technology stocks) have reached a high level, and the market’s concern about the “peak – adjustment” of technology stocks has increased. As a safe – haven asset with low correlation, the long – term allocation value of gold (data from the World Gold Council shows that the overall current gold holdings are still at a low level) resonates with the short – term risk – aversion demand, attracting some funds to flow from technology stocks to the gold market. This trend of capital re – allocation provides liquidity support for the “excessive rise” of the gold price.
Negative Comments: The “Cryptocurrency Circleization” Implies Risks, and Three Hidden Dangers in the Short – Term Sharp Rise Need to Be Watched Out
Although the “cryptocurrency circleization” of gold and multiple positive factors provide long – term support for the gold price, the potential risks behind the short – term sharp rise are also worthy of attention. The deep binding of gold with cryptocurrencies may introduce new sources of volatility, and the over – heating of market sentiment may also amplify price bubbles.
The Transmission of Cryptocurrency Market Volatility: Gold May Become a “Cryptocurrency Sentiment Amplifier”
The cryptocurrency market is known for its high volatility. As a derivative tool in the cryptocurrency circle, the price trend of gold stablecoins may be highly bound to the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market. For example, if the cryptocurrency circle triggers panic selling due to tightened regulatory policies (such as the US SEC strengthening the review of stablecoins) or black – swan events (such as the collapse of exchanges), the demand for gold stablecoins may drop sharply, and then impact the gold market through the reverse cycle of “shrinking stablecoin scale – selling of gold reserves – falling gold price.” As mentioned in the news, although the current scale of gold stablecoins is small, the gold reserves of leading players such as Tether have reached $8 billion. If they sell gold due to liquidity pressure, it may cause a short – term sharp impact on the gold price.
Regulatory Uncertainty: The “Sword of Damocles” for the Expansion of Stablecoins
The long – term development of gold stablecoins highly depends on a friendly regulatory environment, but the global regulation of stablecoins is still in a vague area. For example, the US Treasury Department has repeatedly warned that “stablecoins may threaten financial stability.” Although the EU’s “Markets in Crypto – Assets Regulation” (MiCA) provides a compliance framework for stablecoins, it sets strict capital and reserve requirements for stablecoins pegged to fiat currencies or commodities (such as requiring 100% reserves + liquidity buffer). If future regulations become stricter (such as requiring gold stablecoin issuers to disclose more transparent reserve audits and restricting the issuance scale), it may directly suppress the expansion speed of gold stablecoins, thereby weakening its supporting logic for the gold price.
Over – Speculation in the Short Term: Be Alert to the Callback Risk after the “Excessive Rise”
The recent sharp rise in the gold price (a 10% increase in 6 trading days and a 30% increase in 2 months) has alerted the market. Institutions such as the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have issued risk warnings. Although the World Gold Council believes that the current gold holdings have not reached the historical peak, the influx of short – term speculative funds (such as retail investors following the trend driven by risk – aversion sentiment and the rapid increase in net long positions in the futures market) may cause the price to deviate from the fundamentals. If the subsequent risk – aversion sentiment fades (such as the alleviation of the US banking crisis and the easing of geopolitical conflicts) or the Fed’s policies are tightened more than expected, the gold price may face a significant callback. For example, after the gold price soared to $2,000 per ounce in 2020 due to the risk – aversion sentiment caused by the pandemic, it fell back to $1,600 per ounce due to the expectations of vaccine roll – out and economic recovery. Similar risks in the “sentiment – driven market” need to be highly alerted.
Suggestions for Entrepreneurs: Seize the Opportunities of the “Cryptocurrency Circle + Gold” and Balance Innovation and Risks
The integration of gold and the cryptocurrency circle provides new track opportunities for entrepreneurs, but they need to hold the bottom line of risk in innovation. The following are specific suggestions:
1. Pay Attention to the Compliance Opportunities of Gold Stablecoins and Make Early Arrangements for Regulatory Adaptation
The development of gold stablecoins is restricted by regulations. Entrepreneurs can focus on innovation within the compliance framework. For example, in response to the requirements of regulations such as MiCA, develop gold stablecoin products that meet the “100% reserve + transparent audit”; or cooperate with licensed financial institutions (such as being bound to regulated gold vaults and custodian banks) to enhance users’ trust in the authenticity of reserves. In addition, explore cross – border products of “gold stablecoins + traditional finance” (such as being linked to ETFs and being pegged to the gold leasing market) to expand application scenarios and reduce regulatory resistance at the same time.
2. Deeply Cultivate the Gold Industry Chain and Explore the Synergistic Value of “Stablecoins – Physical Gold”
The expansion of gold stablecoins depends on physical gold reserves. Entrepreneurs can provide services around the gold supply chain. For example, provide one – stop solutions for gold procurement, transportation, and warehousing for stablecoin issuers (such as cooperating with Swiss gold vaults and members of the London Bullion Market Association); or develop digital management tools for gold reserves (such as a blockchain – based reserve tracking system) to improve reserve transparency and management efficiency. In addition, pay attention to the “gold recycling + stablecoin” model, supplement reserves by recycling old gold, and reduce the gold purchase cost of stablecoin issuers.
3. Be Alert to the Volatility Risks in the Cryptocurrency Circle and Build an “Anti – Cycle” Business Portfolio
In response to the volatility brought by the “cryptocurrency circleization” of gold, entrepreneurs need to strengthen their risk – hedging ability. For example, when designing gold stablecoin products, introduce a “dynamic reserve ratio” mechanism (such as increasing the reserve ratio during severe market fluctuations); or launch a stablecoin pegged to both “gold + fiat currency” to balance the safe – haven attribute and price stability. In addition, expand non – cryptocurrency circle application scenarios of gold (such as gold payment and gold – collateralized loans) to reduce the dependence on the single cryptocurrency circle market and build an anti – cycle business portfolio.
4. Track Macro Variables and Flexibly Adjust the Strategic Focus
The gold price is significantly affected by macro factors such as the Fed’s policies, the US dollar credit, and geopolitics. Entrepreneurs need to establish a macro – research system and dynamically adjust their business directions. For example, if the Fed accelerates interest – rate cuts (which is beneficial to the gold price), focus on the market promotion of gold stablecoins; if the US dollar credit deteriorates rapidly due to the US Treasury bond problem, develop “de – dollarization” gold financial products (such as cross – border payment tools denominated in gold). At the same time, closely monitor the valuation changes of technology stocks. If the technology sector reaches the peak and adjusts, launch targeted conversion tools for “transferring technology funds to gold allocation” (such as gold – themed ETF connection products).
In conclusion, the “cryptocurrency circleization” of gold is both an opportunity and a challenge. Entrepreneurs need to seize the long – term trends of stablecoin expansion and the safe – haven attribute of gold, and at the same time, make preparations in terms of regulatory compliance, risk hedging, and macro – adaptation to gain an advantage in the wave of the integration of gold and the cryptocurrency circle.
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