Positive Reviews: The Accelerated Industry Shuffle Clears Out Inefficient Players, and New Forces Drive the Upgrade of the Baking Industry
In recent years, the baking industry has witnessed the co – existence of a “closure wave” and the rise of new forces. Although it may seem fraught with crises, it is actually an inevitable process for the industry to transition from wild growth to a mature stage. This intense shuffle not only accelerates the elimination of inefficient brands but also drives the industry to upgrade in a healthier and more sustainable direction through the innovation of new forces.
First of all, the store – closure wave is essentially a rational correction of the “over – hyped” market, accelerating the concentration of resources towards high – quality brands. In the past few years, new Chinese – style baking became popular quickly due to the “national trend + internet celebrity” marketing model. Brands like MoMo Dessert and Tiger Dessert expanded rapidly in a short time through “queue – up check – ins” and “social fission.” However, the core of this model was traffic rather than product strength. There was serious product homogenization (such as the prevalence of internet – celebrity items like mochi and egg tarts), unstable quality control due to the supply chain’s reliance on third – party代工, and high marketing costs squeezing profit margins. When consumers got tired of the “internet – celebrity label” and the capital enthusiasm faded, brands lacking core competitiveness naturally struggled to survive. The essence of the store – closure wave is that the market uses an “elimination mechanism” to remove the bubbles and re – allocate resources such as stores, consumers, and the supply chain to brands with stronger product and operational capabilities. For example, UH Youhe became extremely popular in first – tier cities with its “handmade on – site + high – end ingredients” (such as a 35 – yuan toast), and Stone Mr.’s Oven created a queuing myth at its first store in Beijing by virtue of “visual aesthetics + regional characteristics.” This is because they grasped the real needs of consumers for “quality” and “differentiation” rather than relying on short – term traffic.
Secondly, the diversified entry of new forces injects innovative vitality into the industry and promotes the upgrading of the competition dimension. The “new voices” in the current baking track mainly come from three types of players. Firstly, regional boutique baking brands establish differentiation through labels such as “handmade + healthy and low – sugar” (for example, UH Youhe emphasizes “zero – addition”). Secondly, super factory stores penetrate the county – level market with the strategy of “comprehensive + high cost – performance” (such as the 2 – yuan breads of Shidouchuan and Dayu Renjia). Thirdly, cross – category giants (such as Cha Yan Yue Se and Haidilao) re – define “quality – price ratio” with their strong brand influence and supply – chain advantages. Cha Yan Bingfang quickly occupied the new Chinese – style baking market with a pricing range of 3 – 6 yuan (products priced at 5 yuan accounted for over 70%), and it was sold out as soon as it opened. Haidilao’s “Shi Shuai Shua” broke the traditional price expectations of baking with a 6.8 – yuan Japanese sea – salt roll and a 10 – yuan baguette. The entry of these new players not only broadens the consumption scenarios of baking (from “afternoon tea” to “daily breakfast”) but also brings the competition back to the “essence of the product” from “marketing gimmicks.” Cha Yan Yue Se accurately develops products based on the user profiles accumulated from its tea business, and Haidilao reduces costs through its central kitchen. In essence, they all build moats with “supply – chain efficiency” and “consumer insights,” promoting the industry’s transformation from “traffic competition” to “value competition.”
Finally, the industry shuffle clarifies future trends and lays the foundation for long – term healthy development. Currently, the baking industry shows a polarization between “high – end boutiques” and “affordable high – quality products,” and data has verified this trend. The growth rate of handmade baking with a customer unit price of over 30 yuan in first – tier cities reaches 20%, and the penetration rate of products priced below 10 yuan in county – level cities is 65%. This polarization is not a market segmentation but an inevitable result of consumer stratification. Young consumers are willing to pay a premium for “healthy ingredients + handmade experience,” while the sinking market values “high cost – performance + daily necessities” more. At the same time, the trends of “quality – price ratio, health, and customization” pointed out by public policy research institutions and industry experts also provide directions for brands. UH Youhe’s “exclusive customization,” the “supply – chain efficiency” of factory stores, and the “low – price and high – quality” of cross – category brands are all responses to these trends. The clarification of these trends prevents the industry from falling into disorderly competition and allows brands to focus more on building core capabilities.
Negative Reviews: The Store – Closure Wave Exposes Industry Pain Points, and Risks of Middle – Tier Brands and Homogenization Need Attention
Although the industry shuffle has its positive significance, the large – scale store – closure wave also exposes deep – seated problems in the baking industry. The shrinking living space of middle – tier brands, the potential homogenization risk caused by cross – category competition, and the short – sighted thinking of some brands that “emphasize marketing over products” still need to be vigilant.
Firstly, the store – closure wave reflects the dual shortcomings of some brands in “stalled expansion” and “weak operational capabilities.” Take MoMo Dessert and Tiger Dessert as examples. Their difficulties are not accidental. In the early stage, they relied on capital for rapid expansion (Tiger Dessert opened over 200 stores in one year), but the construction of their supply chains lagged behind. Stores relying on third – party代工 led to unstable product quality. The proportion of marketing investment was too high (such as frequent co – branding and buying traffic), and they blindly replicated the model without verifying the single – store profit model. They were slow to respond to changes in consumer demand. When the “national trend” faded and consumers paid more attention to “taste and health,” these brands failed to adjust their product strategies in a timely manner. The closure of Huan Niu Cake House more directly exposed management problems. Due to “a sharp increase in costs and management mistakes,” its capital chain broke, and it was even sued by franchisees and consumers for refund requests. These cases show that although the baking industry seems to have a “low threshold” (small stores and low customer unit prices), it actually has extremely high requirements for the supply chain, quality control, and operation. Any shortcoming in any link may become the last straw that breaks the brand.
Secondly, the “polarization” accelerates the elimination of middle – tier brands, which may weaken market diversity. Currently, the baking industry features the co – existence of “high – end boutiques” and “affordable high – quality products,” while brands in the middle price range (such as 15 – 30 yuan) are being quickly shuffled out. These brands can neither establish a premium like UH Youhe through “handmade + health” nor compress costs through economies of scale like factory stores or cross – category brands. They are in an embarrassing situation of being “neither here nor there.” For example, traditional chain baking brands (such as Bread Talk) once covered a wide range of customers with standardized products and mid – range pricing. However, sandwiched between boutique baking (emphasizing “handmade on – site”) and low – price brands (emphasizing “daily necessities”), their “standardized but featureless” products could hardly attract consumers, and they were finally forced to close due to a decline in customer flow. Although the disappearance of middle – tier brands conforms to market laws, it may also lead to the simplification of consumer choices. High – end brands cover niche needs, and low – price brands meet daily necessities, while there may be a supply gap for “high – quality and cost – effective products” in the middle price range (such as fresh bread around 15 yuan), which affects the experience of some consumers.
Finally, the “low – price strategy” of cross – category giants may trigger homogeneous competition and squeeze the industry’s profit margins. The entry of Cha Yan Bingfang and Haidilao has indeed punctured the bubble of high – price baking with their “low – price and high – quality” products, but the side effects of a “price war” also need to be vigilant. For example, Haidilao’s baking stores price basic bread at 6 – 10 yuan, and most products in Cha Yan Bingfang are priced at 5 yuan. This pricing strategy relies on their supply – chain advantages (Haidilao’s central kitchen and Cha Yan Yue Se’s regional procurement). However, if small and medium – sized brands blindly follow this strategy, they may fall into the dilemma of “the more they sell, the more they lose” due to insufficient cost – control capabilities. In addition, although cross – category brands emphasize “quality – price ratio,” their products are still mainly basic items (such as baguettes and sea – salt rolls). If there is insufficient product innovation in the future, the industry may fall into a vicious cycle of “low – price + homogenization.” When all brands focus on “5 – yuan bread,” consumers’ choices will be based only on price rather than brand differences, ultimately squeezing the profit margins of the entire industry and even affecting product quality (such as lowering raw – material standards).
Advice for Entrepreneurs: Focus on Core Capabilities and Find the Key to Survival in the Polarization
Facing the intense shuffle in the baking industry, entrepreneurs need to break away from the “internet – celebrity mindset” and build moats from three dimensions: “product strength, supply chain, and brand resilience” to find their own positioning in the polarization between “high – end boutiques” and “affordable high – quality products.”
First, product strength is fundamental. Entrepreneurs should focus on “differentiation” based on consumer trends rather than “following the trend.” Consumers’ demand for baking has shifted from “trying something new” to “daily necessities + quality upgrade.” Entrepreneurs need to accurately capture niche demands. If targeting high – end boutiques, they can focus on “healthy and low – sugar + handmade experience” (such as UH Youhe’s “zero – addition” toast) and build trust through raw – material traceability and a visible production process. If aiming at the sinking market, they need to strengthen “high cost – performance + high – frequency consumption” (such as the 2 – yuan bread in factory stores), but also pay attention to the richness of product combinations (such as pairing with soy milk and porridge to increase the customer unit price). They should avoid blindly following internet – celebrity items like “corn tarts” and “mochi” and instead establish uniqueness through “regional characteristics” (such as developing new products combined with local food culture) or “scenario – based” (such as different product combinations for breakfast and afternoon tea).
Second, the supply chain is the lifeline. Entrepreneurs need to choose an “efficiency” or “quality” – oriented approach according to their positioning. High – end boutique brands need to strengthen the “on – site production + short – shelf – life” supply chain (such as building their own central kitchens to control quality), sacrificing some scale for quality stability. Affordable brands need to compress costs through “factory direct supply + centralized procurement” (such as the “large and comprehensive” model of super factory stores). At the same time, they should optimize inventory management through digital systems (such as dynamically adjusting production based on historical sales data) to avoid losses caused by near – expiration products. Cross – category brands have the advantage of reusing the supply chain of their parent brands (such as Haidilao’s central kitchen). If entrepreneurs lack this resource, they can consider in – depth cooperation with regional suppliers and obtain price advantages through long – term orders.
Third, brand resilience needs to shift from “traffic dependence” to “user stickiness.” In the past, internet – celebrity baking relied on “queue – up check – ins” and “social fission” to quickly acquire customers, but this kind of traffic is not sustainable. Entrepreneurs need to improve user repurchase through a “membership system + private – domain operation.” For example, record user preferences (such as frequently purchased products and sweetness choices) through a mini – program and push personalized discounts. Create a “third space” in offline stores (such as providing free tea and hosting baking experience classes) to enhance the emotional connection with users. At the same time, pay attention to the long – term accumulation of brand reputation. Although the closure of Gontran Cherrier is regrettable, its label of “simple and delicious” is still remembered by consumers, indicating that “product reputation” is more vital than “marketing hype.”
Fourth, be vigilant against blind expansion and prioritize verifying the single – store profit model. Many failed brands have the common problem of “expanding first and then making a profit,” which leads to a broken capital chain. Entrepreneurs should adhere to the path of “single – store profit → regional replication → national expansion.” At the single – store stage, they need to clarify the target customer group (such as white – collar workers and housewives), calculate the cost structure (the proportion of rent, labor, and raw materials), and verify the repurchase rate (such as whether the membership rate exceeds 30%). When replicating regionally, they need to adjust products according to the consumption habits of different cities (such as the preference for sweet in the south and salty in the north) to avoid a “one – size – fits – all” approach. Before national expansion, they need to ensure that the supply chain can cover the new market (such as cold – chain distribution capabilities and local supplier resources) to avoid affecting product quality due to delayed delivery.
In summary, the shuffle in the baking industry essentially means “eliminating players without core competitiveness and leaving brands that truly understand products, operations, and consumers.” Entrepreneurs need to return to the essence of business, find their own positioning in the trends of “quality – price ratio, health, and scenario – based” products, and build moats with product strength, supply chain, and brand resilience to emerge victorious in this “sweet battle.”
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