Read More《万亿雅下水电工程背后，是史无前例的藏电外送“大棋局”》
Positive Comments: The Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project in the Lower Reaches Reconfigures China’s Energy Landscape and Usher in a New Chapter of the Global Green Energy Revolution
The commencement of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is a milestone event in China’s energy history. With its massive scale and profound significance, it goes far beyond the scope of a single hydropower project. Instead, it is a “grand chess – game” that reconfigures the country’s energy landscape and promotes the global green transformation.
I. Energy Strategic Significance: A Leap – forward Breakthrough from a “Resource Treasure Trove” to a “Green Energy Engine”
As the “Roof of the World”, Tibet has long been regarded as a “virgin land” for energy development due to geographical barriers. However, its clean energy reserves are truly a “national treasure” – with a theoretical hydropower potential of 200 million kilowatts, ranking first in the country, a wind power development potential of 180 million kilowatts, and a theoretical photovoltaic installed capacity of hundreds of millions of kilowatts. The launch of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project in the lower reaches has for the first time transformed this “sleeping” resource treasure trove into real productivity. A hydropower installed capacity of 60 – 70 million kilowatts (equivalent to three Three – Gorges Projects) and a “hydro – wind – solar – storage” integrated base that links 50 million kilowatts of wind and solar resources will not only build the world’s largest clean energy base but also directly contribute 10% to China’s clean energy target in 2035 (with an annual power generation of 300 billion kilowatt – hours). This scale is sufficient to rewrite China’s energy landscape: in the future, the annual transmission of over 500 billion kilowatt – hours of pure green electricity will provide stable “zero – carbon” power for electricity – consuming load centers such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, significantly reducing the eastern region’s dependence on coal – fired power and accelerating the achievement of the “dual – carbon” goal.
II. Economic and Social Value: A “New Lever” for Regional Coordinated Development
The investment scale of 1.2 trillion yuan is not only a “hard investment” in project construction but also a “strong engine” for economic growth. It is estimated that it will drive an incremental GDP of 2.04 trillion yuan and bring over 20 billion yuan in annual fiscal revenue to Tibet. For an underdeveloped region like Tibet, this is a historic development opportunity – through energy development, it can simultaneously drive the upgrading of industrial chains such as infrastructure construction, equipment manufacturing, and technical services, create a large number of jobs, and narrow the development gap with the eastern region. In addition, the “pure green electricity” attribute of Tibet’s electricity transmission (different from the “coal – wind – solar bundled” model in Xinjiang) gives it higher premium potential in the green electricity trading and carbon sink markets. In the future, if clean electricity is exported to South Asia and a “Himalayan – ringed Energy Internet” is built, it will enhance China’s voice in Asian energy rule – making and promote green energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative.
III. Technological Innovation: Breakthroughs in Engineering and Energy Systems in Extreme Environments
The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River project in the lower reaches is itself an “extreme challenge”. From construction on the “Roof of the World” with an average altitude of 4,500 meters to the transmission of ultra – high – voltage lines across the snow – covered plateau at an altitude of 5,300 meters (such as the Tibet section of the Tibet – Guangdong DC project), the requirements for high – altitude construction technology, cold – resistant and ultraviolet – resistant equipment, and long – distance power transmission stability will force China to achieve technological breakthroughs in fields such as hydropower engineering, ultra – high – voltage power transmission, and multi – energy complementarity of wind, solar, and hydropower. For example, the application of ±800 kV and even ±1,100 kV ultra – high – voltage DC technology can achieve a power transmission efficiency of over 90% at a distance of 3,000 kilometers. If this technology is promoted globally, it will reshape the technical standards for cross – regional energy interconnection. The “hydro – wind – solar – storage” integrated development model (hydropower for peak shaving, wind and solar for supplementary power, and energy storage for regulation) also provides a “Chinese solution” to the problem of intermittency of renewable energy and is expected to become a benchmark model for global clean energy bases.
Negative Comments: Realistic Challenges and Potential Risks of Large – scale Green Energy Transmission
Behind the grand blueprint of the Yarlung Zangbo River project in the lower reaches lie multiple realistic challenges. From the construction difficulties in extreme natural conditions, the complexity of cross – regional interest coordination, to the technical and ecological risks in long – term operation, every step needs to be carefully addressed.
I. High Construction and Operation Costs in Extreme Environments
The high – cold and oxygen – deficient environment, complex geology (such as the seismically active zone in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River), and inconvenient transportation (some areas rely on the extension line of the Sichuan – Tibet Railway) in Tibet make the project construction cost far higher than that of conventional hydropower projects. For example, the dynamic investment of the Tibet – Guangdong DC project is 53.168 billion yuan, with a total line length of 2,681 kilometers (over 60% passing through high mountains and ridges), and its unit – kilometer cost is several times that of the eastern plain area. In addition, the high – altitude environment has extremely high requirements for the anti – freezing, anti – ultraviolet, and anti – sand performance of equipment. Conventional equipment needs to be customized and modified, and more manpower and material resources are also required for later operation and maintenance (such as ultra – high – voltage line inspection and hydropower station equipment maintenance). If cost control is not proper, it may affect the overall economic viability of the project and even require long – term policy subsidies.
II. Cross – grid and Cross – region Coordination: “Institutional Innovation” is Needed to Break Barriers
The efficient implementation of Tibet’s electricity transmission depends on the interconnection between the State Grid and the Southern Power Grid and the balance of interests between power – sending and power – receiving provinces. However, the current “inter – provincial barriers” in the power industry are still the biggest obstacle. Historically, when Yunnan transmitted electricity to Guangdong, due to the slower growth rate of Guangdong’s electricity consumption than the incremental amount of Yunnan’s hydropower transmission, contradictions arose between the two sides due to the loss of thermal power profits. Later, when Yunnan reduced its hydropower generation and transmission, Guangdong even expanded its local coal – fired power generation. In the future, when Tibet transmits green electricity to the Greater Bay Area and East China, if the power – receiving provinces restrict the transmission scale to protect their local power industries (such as coal – fired power and new energy) or demand “low – price electricity entry” to squeeze the profits of Tibet’s green electricity, the problem of “difficult transmission” may occur. In addition, although there are already channels such as the Jiangcheng DC and the Fujian – Guangdong interconnection between the State Grid and the Southern Power Grid, the Tibet – Guangdong DC project needs to transmit electricity from the State Grid area (Tibet) to the Southern Power Grid area (Guangdong) and then distribute it to the State Grid area (Fujian) through the Fujian – Guangdong interconnection. The coordination between the two grids in terms of dispatching rules, electricity price settlement, and profit sharing still needs to break through the existing mechanisms.
III. The Dilemma of Balancing Multi – energy Complementarity and Ecological Protection
Although the “hydro – wind – solar – storage” integration can improve the stability of power supply, it also increases the complexity of the system. The output characteristics of hydropower (stable base load), wind power (intermittent), and photovoltaic power (strong during the day and weak at night) vary greatly. An accurate intelligent dispatching system is required to achieve the coordination of “source – grid – load – storage”; otherwise, problems such as wind and solar curtailment or redundant hydropower may occur. In addition, the ecological environment of the Tibetan Plateau is extremely fragile. Large – scale development of hydropower (such as dam construction may affect river ecology), photovoltaic power (large – area installation may damage permafrost), and wind power (wind turbine construction may interfere with wildlife migration) may cause irreversible environmental damage if ecological assessment is insufficient or protection measures are not in place. For example, the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River are a global biodiversity hotspot area. Project construction needs to strictly avoid core protected areas; otherwise, it may face environmental protection disputes and even the risk of policy suspension.
Suggestions for Entrepreneurs: Seize Green Energy Opportunities and Deeply Engage in “Hard Technology” and “Soft Coordination”
The advancement of the Yarlung Zangbo River project in the lower reaches and Tibet’s electricity transmission provides unprecedented opportunities for entrepreneurs, but they also need to face challenges. Based on the core of the news, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
I. Focus on the “Hard Technology” of the Clean Energy Industry Chain to Fill Technological Gaps
The extreme environment in Tibet poses higher requirements for equipment and technology. Entrepreneurs can focus on the following areas:
– Special – purpose equipment for high – altitude areas: Develop photovoltaic modules, wind turbine blades, ultra – high – voltage insulating materials, etc. that are resistant to low temperatures, ultraviolet rays, and sandstorms to solve the attenuation problem of conventional equipment in the plateau environment;
– Intelligent dispatching system for multi – energy complementarity: Develop an AI – based hydro – wind – solar – storage coordinated control platform to optimize the output curves of different energy sources and improve the stability of transmitted power;
– High – altitude construction technology: Develop unmanned construction equipment (such as drone inspection and intelligent blasting equipment) to reduce labor costs and safety risks.
II. Participate in the Ecological Cooperation of “Tibet’s Electricity Transmission” and Strengthen Localization Capabilities
Tibet’s energy development needs to balance economic and ecological benefits. Entrepreneurs need to:
– Conduct ecological assessment in advance: When selecting sites for photovoltaic and wind power projects, introduce satellite remote sensing and ecological models to avoid sensitive areas such as permafrost zones and wildlife migration corridors;
– Deepen local cooperation: Cooperate with local enterprises and herdsmen in Tibet through the “energy + livelihood” model (such as developing ecological agriculture around photovoltaic power stations) to improve the social acceptance of the project;
– Layout value – added services for green electricity: Relying on the “pure green electricity” attribute of Tibet’s electricity, develop green electricity traceability platforms and carbon footprint certification services to meet the green electricity procurement needs of high – energy – consuming enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.
III. Pay Attention to Cross – regional Power Market Rules and Seize Policy Dividends
Inter – provincial barriers and cross – grid coordination are the key challenges for Tibet’s electricity transmission. Entrepreneurs need to:
– Track policy dynamics: Pay attention to the rule adjustments of the state regarding cross – provincial and cross – region power trading (such as green electricity trading pilots and inter – provincial power transmission price mechanisms), and make early arrangements for trading platforms or consulting services;
– Participate in regional collaborative innovation: Jointly explore the “green electricity replacement” model with enterprises in power – sending and power – receiving provinces (for example, eastern enterprises invest in green electricity in Tibet to replace local coal – fired power indicators) to avoid inter – provincial protectionism;
– Expand the South Asian market: Pay attention to the “Himalayan – ringed Energy Internet” plan, make early arrangements for cross – border power trade and green certificate trading, and seize the opportunity in the South Asian green energy market.
The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project in the lower reaches marks that China’s clean energy development has entered the “deep – water zone”. This unprecedented “Tibet’s electricity transmission” grand chess – game is not only an inevitable choice for the national energy strategy but also an opportunity of the era for entrepreneurs. Only by breaking through natural limits through technological innovation, resolving interest contradictions through institutional innovation, and balancing development and protection with ecological awareness can the green energy potential of the “Roof of the World” be transformed into new impetus for global sustainable development.
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