I. Industry Risk Analysis

(1) Policy Risk

The policy risks faced by the fresh food supermarket industry are concentrated in the stages of policy implementation and adjustment. Due to its people’s livelihood attributes, the industry is subject to strong supervision: policies in the field of food safety continue to be upgraded (such as cold chain logistics traceability and new national standards for pesticide residues), and enterprises need to iteratively update their detection systems frequently; environmental protection policies are becoming stricter (plastic restriction orders, packaging recycling), which drives up compliance costs, and small enterprises are likely to be eliminated due to insufficient equipment investment; policies on community business layout are tightening, and temporary restrictions on noise and fire protection of front – end warehouses in some cities may cause business interruptions; there is a risk of periodic fluctuations in local subsidy policies (such as a reduction in the issuance of consumer vouchers), which impacts the profit stability of traffic – dependent enterprises; after the implementation of the Data Security Law, the collection of user consumption information and the algorithm – based pricing model are under pressure to reconstruct compliance.

(2) Economic Risk

The fresh food supermarket industry is currently facing multiple pressures during the downward phase of the economic cycle: consumer demand is affected by the slowdown in the growth rate of residents’ disposable income, and the consumption of high – end fresh food categories has shrunk significantly; inflationary pressure drives up the three rigid expenditures of cold chain logistics, warehousing rent, and labor costs, but the terminal selling price is difficult to pass on the costs due to the low – price impact of community group buying; the stability of the supply chain is affected by extreme weather and international trade fluctuations, and the inventory turnover efficiency of high – frequency fresh food categories has decreased; the risk appetite of capital providers has decreased, making it more difficult for the industry to raise funds. The heavy – asset expansion model is unsustainable, and the transformation to a light – asset model is facing the cross – dimensional attack of Internet giants such as Meituan Maicai. The industry as a whole has entered a stage of stock competition with low profit margins and high losses.

(3) Social Risk

The fresh food supermarket industry faces the risk of a generational gap in consumption habits. Generation Z prefers online instant delivery and delicate packaging, while the elderly group relies on offline shopping scenarios and is price – sensitive. The conflict between the needs of the two generations makes it difficult for the supply chain transformation to meet both; young consumers’ acceptance of the premium of organic food and low – carbon packaging has formed a market segmentation, but the high price sensitivity of middle – aged and elderly users squeezes the profit margin; community group buying has snatched the decision – making power of family purchases, weakening the social attribute of traditional supermarkets as the “third space” for family consumption; the generational difference in health awareness has led to disputes over food safety standards, and the construction cost of cold chain logistics is difficult to be effectively shared by the mixed generational customer group.

(4) Legal Risk

Entrepreneurs in the fresh food supermarket industry face multiple legal risks: in terms of food safety supervision, expired products, broken cold chains, and sub – standard hygiene are likely to trigger penalties under the Food Safety Law; in the field of employment, they need to prevent labor arbitration caused by non – standard labor contracts and lack of social insurance; at the supply chain end, if suppliers forge qualifications or have excessive pesticide residues, it will lead to joint liability; the abuse of labels such as “organic” and “additive – free” in advertising may constitute false advertising; if the collection and storage of consumer data are illegal (such as excessive collection of facial recognition), it will violate the Personal Information Protection Law; in addition, improper handling of packaging waste may face environmental protection penalties, and the lack of quarantine certificates for imported fresh food will lead to customs liability. Any omission in any link will directly increase the enterprise’s compliance costs and litigation risks.

II. Entrepreneurship Guide

(1) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Opportunities

Entrepreneurs in the fresh food supermarket industry can focus on small – scale community – based formats, rely on the instant delivery network (delivered within 30 minutes) to build a “fridge at the doorstep” model, and provide a precise product selection combination (such as high – frequency fresh food + prepared dishes + kitchen supplies) around high – repurchase family scenarios. They can use self – built mini – programs to accumulate private domain traffic for user repurchase analysis; focus on exploring the blank spots in communities in third – and fourth – tier cities, jointly establish a short – supply chain system of “direct procurement + customized sorting” with local growers/breeders, use intelligent ordering systems and shared warehousing to reduce losses, and at the same time, layout community group leaders’ resources to expand the “store + home delivery” hybrid service, and enhance user stickiness through offline experiential scenarios (such as on – site production stalls).

(2) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Resources

Entrepreneurs in the fresh food supermarket industry need to focus on the integration of core resources: prioritize locking in local high – quality supply chain resources, and reduce procurement costs through direct procurement cooperation or equity investment in agricultural cooperatives; optimize the “last – mile” delivery resources based on the community scenario, and use shared cold chains or jointly build pick – up points with property management; integrate idle supermarket space resources for joint operation transformation to reduce heavy – asset investment; leverage social human resources such as community group leaders and stay – at – home moms to build a private domain traffic pool; relieve cash – flow pressure through policy resources such as government industrial fund subsidies and special agricultural product loans, and form a light – asset, high – turnover community – based fresh food service network.

(3) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Teams

Entrepreneurs in the fresh food supermarket industry should form a composite team, focusing on recruiting members with supply chain management experience (with more than 3 years of experience in fresh food distribution or cold chain logistics), community operation ability (good at community fission or private domain traffic conversion), and digital tool application experience (proficient in ERP systems or fresh food SAAS platforms). The core team should include at least one operation expert with experience in loss control in large – scale supermarkets, establish a daily data review mechanism (focusing on monitoring three core indicators: loss rate, turnover rate, and customer unit price), implement the store partner system (using 10% – 15% of the single – store profit as team incentives), and at the same time, reserve 15% – 20% of the equity space in the core team for the introduction of key talents.

(4) Suggestions on Entrepreneurial Risks

Entrepreneurs in the fresh food supermarket industry need to focus on controlling supply chain risks, prioritize establishing stable cold chain logistics partners and signing supply guarantee agreements; control the loss rate below 5% through intelligent sorting systems and dynamic inventory monitoring, and use the pre – sale system to relieve the pressure of fresh food inventory; track community consumption data in real – time, and rely on the dynamic pricing mechanism (such as evening discount periods) to accelerate turnover; when establishing a membership – based prepaid system, a fund custody account should be set up to avoid crossing the red line of illegal fund – raising; conduct regular food safety inspections and compliance training, and keep 48 – hour food traceability records; maintain light – asset operations, control the proportion of venue rent to less than 15% of revenue, and use community group buying pre – sales to support cash flow; continuously monitor the dynamics of competitors within a 3 – kilometer radius, and form a differentiated barrier in special product categories (such as organic vegetable areas and semi – finished clean vegetables); establish a list of alternative supply chains and sign priority supply agreements, formulate in advance an emergency plan for community group – order delivery during the epidemic lockdown period, and update and drill the emergency manual quarterly.