1. Industry Risk Analysis

(1) Policy Risk

Currently, the ready-to-drink (RTD) cocktail industry faces the risk of tightened policies. Upgrades in food additive and health standards may lead to a sharp increase in the cost of formula compliance (e.g., restrictions on artificial colors and sweeteners). Stricter control over alcohol consumption may push up the industry’s tax leverage (referring to the adjustment trend of liquor consumption tax), squeezing the gross profit margin. There are vague areas in the supervision of marketing targeting teenagers and online marketing. Once the advertising law is revised to clearly impose restrictions, the efficiency of channel promotion will be impacted. New regulations such as the “low-alcohol label” piloted in some regions may raise the entry threshold, and differences in regional sales policies further exacerbate the risk of market fragmentation.

(2) Economic Risk

The RTD cocktail industry currently faces multiple risks brought about by economic cyclical fluctuations. On the consumer side, as the economic growth slows down, the disposable income of the young population is compressed, resulting in a decline in the willingness for impulsive consumption of non-essential items. On the channel side, traditional retail terminals such as supermarkets and convenience stores are accelerating the inventory clearance cycle due to the decline in passenger flow. Coupled with the rising cost of online traffic, the exposure space for new brands is squeezed. On the supply chain side, the prices of bulk raw materials fluctuate sharply due to international situations, and the high costs of packaging materials and logistics continue to erode the profit margin. On the capital side, the risk appetite decreases during the interest rate hike cycle, the financing window for the industry narrows, leading to insufficient self – hematopoietic ability of new brands. Under the accelerated market integration, small and medium – sized players are facing the dual squeeze of price wars by leading enterprises and channel monopolies.

(3) Social Risk

The RTD cocktail industry faces the risk of a break in inter – generational consumption demand. Generation Z pursues the concept of low – sugar and healthy products, which conflicts with the high – sugar content of traditional RTD cocktails. Young consumers are turning to alternative products such as sugar – free sparkling wines. After entering middle age, the consumption scenarios of Millennials have shifted to family social gatherings, which are misaligned with the party scenarios that RTD cocktails mainly target. The low acceptance of RTD cocktails among the silver – haired population creates a market gap. The emerging consumers’ pursuit of Chinese – style cultural trends creates a cognitive gap with the brand image of foreign – dominated RTD cocktails. The lack of innovation of domestic brands leads to a lack of cultural identity. Over – reliance on short – video marketing has caused inter – generational aesthetic fatigue. The young generation has a trust crisis in “marketing – driven” products, and the continuous decline in the repurchase rate has become a growth bottleneck.

(4) Legal Risk

The legal risks in the RTD cocktail industry are concentrated in the areas of regulatory compliance and market competition. Products need to meet food safety standards (e.g., GB 2758 – 2012 Hygienic Standards for Alcoholic Beverages). Improper raw material traceability and use of additives will face penalties. Advertising is restricted by the Anti – Unfair Competition Law. Excessive exaggeration of “health benefits” is likely to violate the law. The approval for liquor business licenses is strict (especially for e – commerce channels, a “Liquor Circulation License” is required). Differences in regional distribution policies increase the compliance cost. Packaging designs and wine labels are prone to trademark infringement disputes (e.g., the appearance patent lawsuit between RIO and Ice River in 2024). New – type marketing is likely to violate the Law on the Protection of Minors (e.g., live – streaming sales without effectively blocking minor audiences). The risk of tax audits is prominent (in 2023, a certain brand was required to pay tens of millions of yuan in back taxes due to cross – regional sales).

2. Entrepreneurship Guide

(1) Suggestions for Entrepreneurial Opportunities

Entrepreneurs in the RTD cocktail industry can enter the market by focusing on the demands for health, scenarios, and personalization. They can develop niche product lines with low – sugar, low – calorie, and natural ingredients (e.g., fruit and vegetable – based, zero – additive series). Combine channels such as convenience stores, nightclubs, and online live – streaming to launch small – capacity portable packages and party – sharing packages suitable for different scenarios. Create a bartending tutorial IP through short – videos on TikTok or Xiaohongshu, and establish a combination set of “alcohol + snacks + scenarios” to increase the repurchase rate. Focus on the youth social scenarios in second – and third – tier cities, and jointly launch region – specific flavors (e.g., Sichuan spicy gin, Lingnan lychee flavor) with local catering brands. Use co – branded products to test market feedback and then quickly iterate the product matrix. At the same time, build a flexible supply chain to achieve small – batch customized production.

(2) Suggestions for Entrepreneurial Resources

Entrepreneurs in the RTD cocktail industry should focus on the rapid integration of supply chain and channel resources. Upstream, connect with high – quality base liquor suppliers and OEM contract manufacturers to achieve asset – light production, and use raw material procurement agreements to ensure cost controllability. In the middle, build DTC channels through content e – commerce platforms such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu, and at the same time, layout offline terminal channels such as convenience stores and boutique supermarkets to achieve full – channel coverage. Downstream, jointly create co – branded product lines with internet celebrity bartenders and bar owners, and use nightclub channel resources for targeted marketing. Focus on attracting investments from food and beverage industry funds, apply for local government support policies for new consumer brands, and give priority to connecting with strategic investors with liquor channel resources.

(3) Suggestions for Entrepreneurial Teams

Entrepreneurs in the RTD cocktail industry should build a founding team with complementary capabilities in product R & D, brand marketing, and channel operation. Prioritize recruiting food and beverage R & D experts to solve formula innovation and compliance issues, and equip the team with digital marketing talents familiar with the consumption behavior of Generation Z to build a social communication matrix. At the same time, introduce integrators of FMCG channel resources to strengthen the offline terminal layout. Establish a flat decision – making mechanism to maintain market sensitivity. Bind core technical personnel such as bartenders through equity incentives, regularly conduct liquor regulations training to avoid compliance risks, and use a data center to establish a real – time feedback closed – loop among R & D, production, and marketing. Encourage regional teams to flexibly adjust marketing strategies while maintaining the unity of brand tone.

(4) Suggestions for Entrepreneurial Risks

Entrepreneurs in the RTD cocktail industry need to focus on accurate market positioning (e.g., targeting the young population or the female market). Prioritize the development of differentiated products (e.g., low – sugar, zero – calorie, or region – specific flavors) to avoid homogeneous competition. Build a stable raw material supply chain system (it is recommended to lock in 2 – 3 core suppliers + 1 backup supplier). Pay special attention to preventing risks related to food safety regulations (strictly control production licenses, ingredient labeling, and advertising compliance). Establish an immediate response mechanism for user feedback (quickly iterate products through e – commerce reviews and social media interactions). Simultaneously implement a dynamic cash flow monitoring model (control the inventory turnover cycle within 45 days and reserve 20% emergency funds to cope with sudden industry policy adjustments).